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【速度】 Hopeful in Hong Kong By Juliana Liu Hong Kong correspondent, BBC News
【计时一】 The prospects of a fast track onto the career ladder is drawing students from around the world to Hong Kong, but the path to riches is not an easy one. Only those who can afford to make the trip and pay for studies are able to make the move and on top of that they will have to learn at least one language if they want to get on. "Ta shi na guo ren," the earnest Mandarin Chinese teacher, Ms Zhang, intones. A chorus of voices mimics her, straining to match the instructor in pronunciation and pitch, in order to ask the question: "What country is he from?" It is a weekday afternoon at the leafy campus of the University of Hong Kong (HKU), located in the hills west of the city centre. About two dozen students from Europe, the United States and South Asia are taking an introductory class in Mandarin Chinese. The course is so popular among international students that Sean Quinn, a second-year student originally from Britain, almost did not get a place. The 20-year-old is one of 300 overseas students that HKU accepts every year for its undergraduate degree programme, where courses are taught and examined in English. The son of an international banker, Sean had lived in America, and considered attending university there or at home in the United Kingdom. But he choose to head east to Hong Kong, in order to be with his family and escape from what he calls a dismal post-graduation job search back home. "Well, what I would face in the UK after graduation would be just a wall of rejections," he admits, with a rueful chuckle. "It is very difficult to find paid work. It's even difficult to find unpaid work in the UK. I know this from friends who have graduated and remain jobless for a year after graduation in some cases," he tells BBC News while taking a break in a study room. 【326】
【计时二】 Going east The perception that booming economies in the East currently offer more job opportunities than in the West explains why increasing numbers of overseas students are clamouring to study in Asia, particularly at Chinese universities in Hong Kong, Beijing and Shanghai. The trend is especially visible in the university district of north-western Beijing, where students of many different nationalities congregate for classes. At HKU, which started enrolling international students in 2005, applications for degree programmes were modest at first, but started soaring by more than 20% after the global financial crisis of 2008. While not completely untouched, Asian economies have weathered the economic crisis relatively well. "Without a doubt, students are understanding that they need to look long-term, as well as short-term," John Spinks, the university's director of undergraduate admissions, tells BBC News. "That medium term is all about careers and career advancement," he says. "The reality is that at this moment in time, when you look at 2012, the employment rate is very high. The graduate employment rate is even higher, especially when you look at this university." Mr Spinks says the unemployment rate for HKU's fresh graduates stands at 0.2%. That compares with a jobless rate of 3.4% for Hong Kong in 2011, which is already considered by economists to be equivalent to full employment. Asia's growing economic might is helping to change global patterns in student mobility, according to the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (Unesco). As a result of more stringent visa policies and a relatively less-dynamic economy, the proportion of mobile students going to the US fell from 32% in 1998 to 19% in 2008, according to Mr Spinks, citing figures from Unesco. At the same time, the proportion of US students coming to Asia grew from 6% in 1998 to 11% in 2008. 【302】
【计时三】 Locals versus expats Many of those students aim to learn an Asian language. Sean Quinn had debated between studying Cantonese, the dialect spoken in Hong Kong and south China, or Mandarin, the national dialect. He eventually chose Mandarin because it is used more widely and may open more professional doors. That is a wise move, according to recruiters. Because multi-national firms are getting more of their business from the fast-growing Asian markets, they increasingly prioritise employees with deep local knowledge and connections. The days when a Western expatriate was able to land a job with few qualifications besides English language fluency are over, says Angel Lam, a Hong Kong-based recruiter at the Robert Walters agency. "Language skills are very important. The ability to understand the local culture is very important, so if you don't have the language skills and you haven't been to a specific Asian country, then getting a job will be a challenge," she warns overly optimistic expats. Her agency estimates the number of inquiries from Western expats who want to work in the Asia Pacific region has jumped by more than 30% over the past four years. Not all will find what they are looking for. Ms Lam says the jobseekers she finds easiest to place are so-called returnees, people born and bred in Asia but educated abroad. These candidates are often fluent in English, as well as one or more Asian languages. She says they have an instinctive grasp of their native culture, adapt well and are often cheaper to hire than a Western expat because they do not require relocation packages. Recruiters say Western candidates can be competitive if they speak Asian languages or have specialist knowledge. Sean Quinn understands the importance of immersing himself in the local culture and language. He has not entirely decided whether he will seek further education or join the workforce after graduation, but he feels moving to Hong Kong was one of the best decisions he has ever made. 【330】
Need a job? Learn to impress the robots By Michael Millar BBC Business News
【计时四】 It is a sunny day as the young man sits on a park bench; a bird flies by and a leaf falls from a tree. But things are about to get busy: he will be accosted by one friend offering a holiday deal, another offering a job opportunity in a coffee shop, and then by a series of people demanding help with their mobile phones. How he responds in these scenarios will determine if he remains in the running for a job or whether he will end up back on the bench watching the birds. However, even though the leaves are dropping he won't feel any autumn cold, as he (or indeed, she, if you so choose) is an avatar; a cartoon character created to vet would-be employees. The Chemistry Group, which describes itself as a talent consultancy, has designed this online game so communications firm O2 can analyse potential candidates. Human touch It is just one of a new breed of software that reflects the growing impact of the digital age on the recruitment sector. Another programme, created by talent management firm SHL, features online 3D simulations, which drop graduate applicants into scenarios where a boss with a piercing stare asks for solutions to various dilemmas. Other software is positively Spartan in the opportunity it gives applicants to shine. EnRecruit, a video-based interview product, offers potential staff just three questions via an online webcam, which a recruiter can use to make quick decisions about whom to actually meet. Human contact, it seems, will be one of the first casualties of a new digital recruitment age. "Face-to-face interviews, because they are time-consuming and costly for both parties, will increasingly be reserved for the very final stages of hiring," says Gordon Whyte, a recruitment consultant at BIE Group. But he doesn't think actually meeting a prospective employer will disappear entirely from the process. "Can you imagine hiring someone to lead an organisation or for a customer-facing role if you've never met them?" he asks What this means for those falling into the cracks between these two groups is uncertain. 【348】
【计时五】 Key words What it does mean is would-be recruits will have to look much more carefully at job adverts. Firms are already using applicant tracking systems, which analyse CVs using key-word recognition. "Nobody reads through 500 CVs anymore - it's all automated," says Whyte. "Job seekers can do a lot to improve their chances of selection if they first understand the tools companies use to filter applications." He cites a job advert for a software engineer that states the applicant 'Must have basic knowledge of Linux operating systems'. The software would then search for that specific title as well as look for the keywords 'Linux', 'Basic' and 'Experience' situated closely together on the CV. Lies and statistics But this opens the system up to abuse, with software firm NorthgateArinso People Checking reporting 71% of employers already encounter lies on CVs. As flexible working and virtual teams become more prevalent, so does the opportunity to pull the wool over an electronic recruiter's eyes. Mike Ryan, a Digital Futurist and founder of Fusion Futures, says an array of rules combining Artificial Intelligence and psychology will determine how confident a candidate is, and whether they have plagiarised material or told lies. "Recruitment companies will use sensitive technology around truth and aptitude which will be similar to those used in the current US elections," he says. He is referring to the newly-developed Super PAC mobile phone app, which listens to presidential adverts and then tells the viewer who paid for the advert based on campaign donations. It then analyses the claims made in the advert and offers a fact check based on multiple sources and opinions; it's a bit like Shazam with a lie detector attached. 【282】 【剩余部分】 Diving in Human contact may be falling out of the recruitment process but many employers hope moving further into the digital space will, somewhat paradoxically, allow them to build richer relationships with potential staff. It seems only a matter of time before the juggernaut of social media plays a leading role in recruitment through the creation of digital talent pools. Mark Lee, managing director at recruitment outsourcing firm Futurestep, says this concept goes far beyond a list of candidates sourced from recruitment agencies. "It is a community of people that opt into a relationship with an employer brand that is then able to share target content, resources and interactions with talent," he says. This can create a brand attachment without forcing the issue of potential future employment, Lee adds. Recruiters are getting better at targeting social networks as they jump into these digital pools. "Social recruiting across LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter and other media allows companies to improve exponentially their potential talent pool of candidates by encouraging employees to share job opportunities with their relevant contacts, and pass it on," says Dan Finnigan, CEO of 'social recruiting solutions' firm Jobvite. "This social referral process is faster, less expensive and often results in hiring better cultural fits." But Finnigan warns firms there is a real challenge maintaining a consistent brand image and voice across all these social networks. Companies also have to make sure they have a system in place to handle the increased applicant pool they'll get thanks to expanded promotion. Big numbers Using social media is one way firms could see a global - and highly mobile - talent pool suddenly open up before them. Some basic calculations reveal that the potential reach could be staggering. If Company X has 100 employees - and the average person has 150 social media contacts - then at the first degree that is a potential pool of 15,000 people to target. If each of these people have 150 contacts then the reach at the second degree in 2.25million. At the third degree that number expands to an eye-watering 337.5m people. If recruiters do go down this route then social networks could look very different in the future. Job seekers will have to be diligent in ensuring they have an online image judged 'work safe'. Out will go pictures of stupidity, inebriation and hen or stag-do tomfoolery; in will come acts of diligence, compassion and fortitude. The need to recruit globally will be exacerbated by an increasingly mobile workforce and education systems in some countries failing to keep up with the changing demands of the jobs market. Recruitment professionals will no doubt wonder what their role will be in this brave new world of simulations and social networks. Gordon Whyte is confident he's not out of a job just yet. "Where a job calls for harder-to-assess qualities - the so-called soft skills - technology will continue to have a limited role for the foreseeable future," he says. "Non-verbal and physical communication, influencing skills and so on still require real people, adept at spotting them, if they are to be identified and evaluated. "So don't expect consultants like us to disappear any time soon." 【529】
【越障】 Inequality and the world economy True Progressivism A new form of radical centrist politics is needed to tackle inequality without hurting economic growth [attachimg]108462[/attachimg]
BY THE end of the 19th century, the first age of globalisation and a spate of new inventions had transformed the world economy. But the “Gilded Age” was also a famously unequal one, with America’s robber barons and Europe’s “Downton Abbey” classes amassing huge wealth: the concept of “conspicuous consumption” dates back to 1899. The rising gap between rich and poor (and the fear of socialist revolution) spawned a wave of reforms, from Theodore Roosevelt’s trust-busting to Lloyd George’s People’s Budget. Governments promoted competition, introduced progressive taxation and wove the first threads of a social safety net. The aim of this new “Progressive era”, as it was known in America, was to make society fairer without reducing its entrepreneurial vim.
Modern politics needs to undergo a similar reinvention—to come up with ways of mitigating inequality without hurting economic growth. That dilemma is already at the centre of political debate, but it mostly produces heat, not light. Thus, on America’s campaign trail, the left attacks Mitt Romney as a robber baron and the right derides Barack Obama as a class warrior. In some European countries politicians have simply given in to the mob: witness François Hollande’s proposed 75% income-tax rate. In much of the emerging world leaders would rather sweep the issue of inequality under the carpet: witness China’s nervous embarrassment about the excesses of Ferrari-driving princelings, or India’s refusal to tackle corruption.
At the core, there is a failure of ideas. The right is still not convinced that inequality matters. The left’s default position is to raise income-tax rates for the wealthy and to increase spending still further—unwise when sluggish economies need to attract entrepreneurs and when governments, already far bigger than Roosevelt or Lloyd George could have imagined, are overburdened with promises of future largesse. A far more dramatic rethink is needed: call it True Progressivism. To have or to have not Does inequality really need to be tackled? The twin forces of globalisation and technical innovation have actually narrowed inequality globally, as poorer countries catch up with richer ones. But within many countries income gaps have widened. More than two-thirds of the world’s people live in countries where income disparities have risen since 1980, often to a startling degree. In America the share of national income going to the top 0.01% (some 16,000 families) has risen from just over 1% in 1980 to almost 5% now—an even bigger slice than the top 0.01% got in the Gilded Age.
It is also true that some measure of inequality is good for an economy. It sharpens incentives to work hard and take risks; it rewards the talented innovators who drive economic progress. Free-traders have always accepted that the more global a market, the greater the rewards will be for the winners. But as our special report this week argues, inequality has reached a stage where it can be inefficient and bad for growth.
That is most obvious in the emerging world. In China credit is siphoned to state-owned enterprises and well-connected insiders; the elite also gain from a string of monopolies. In Russia the oligarchs’ wealth has even less to do with entrepreneurialism. In India, too often, the same is true.
In the rich world the cronyism is better-hidden. One reason why Wall Street accounts for a disproportionate share of the wealthy is the implicit subsidy given to too-big-to-fail banks. From doctors to lawyers, many high-paying professions are full of unnecessary restrictive practices. And then there is the most unfair transfer of all—misdirected welfare spending. Social spending is often less about helping the poor than giving goodies to the relatively wealthy. In America the housing subsidy to the richest fifth (through mortgage-interest relief) is four times the amount spent on public housing for the poorest fifth.
Even the sort of inequality produced by meritocracy can hurt growth. If income gaps get wide enough, they can lead to less equality of opportunity, especially in education. Social mobility in America, contrary to conventional wisdom, is lower than in most European countries. The gap in test scores between rich and poor American children is roughly 30-40% wider than it was 25 years ago. And by some measures class mobility is even stickier in China than in America.
Some of those at the top of the pile will remain sceptical that inequality is a problem in itself. But even they have an interest in mitigating it, for if it continues to rise, momentum for change will build and may lead to a political outcome that serves nobody’s interests. Communism may be past reviving, but there are plenty of other bad ideas out there.
Hence the need for a True Progressive agenda. Here is our suggestion, which steals ideas from both left and right to tackle inequality in three ways that do not harm growth.
Compete, target and reform The priority should be a Rooseveltian attack on monopolies and vested interests, be they state-owned enterprises in China or big banks on Wall Street. The emerging world, in particular, needs to introduce greater transparency in government contracts and effective anti-trust law. It is no coincidence that the world’s richest man, Carlos Slim, made his money in Mexican telecoms, an industry where competitive pressures were low and prices were sky-high. In the rich world there is also plenty of opening up to do. Only a fraction of the European Union’s economy is a genuine single market. School reform and introducing choice is crucial: no Wall Street financier has done as much damage to American social mobility as the teachers’ unions have. Getting rid of distortions, such as labour laws in Europe or the remnants of China’s hukou system of household registration, would also make a huge difference.
Next, target government spending on the poor and the young. In the emerging world too much cash goes to universal fuel subsidies that disproportionately favour the wealthy (in Asia) and unaffordable pensions that favour the relatively affluent (in Latin America). But the biggest target for reform is the welfare states of the rich world. Given their ageing societies, governments cannot hope to spend less on the elderly, but they can reduce the pace of increase—for instance, by raising retirement ages more dramatically and means-testing the goodies on offer. Some of the cash could go into education. The first Progressive era led to the introduction of publicly financed secondary schools; this time round the target should be pre-school education, as well as more retraining for the jobless.
Last, reform taxes: not to punish the rich but to raise money more efficiently and progressively. In poorer economies, where tax avoidance is rife, the focus should be on lower rates and better enforcement. In rich ones the main gains should come from eliminating deductions that particularly benefit the wealthy (such as America’s mortgage-interest deduction); narrowing the gap between tax rates on wages and capital income; and relying more on efficient taxes that are paid disproportionately by the rich, such as some property taxes. 【1188】
【剩余部分】 Different parts of this agenda are already being embraced in different countries. Latin America has invested in schools and pioneered conditional cash transfers for the very poor; it is the only region where inequality in most countries has been falling. India and Indonesia are considering scaling back fuel subsidies. More generally, as they build their welfare states, Asian countries are determined to avoid the West’s extravagance. In the rich world Scandinavia is the most inventive region. Sweden has overhauled its admittedly huge welfare state and has a universal school-voucher system. Britain too is reforming schools and simplifying welfare. In America Mr Romney says he wants to means-test Medicare and cut tax deductions, though he is short on details. Meanwhile, Mr Obama, a Democrat, has invoked Theodore Roosevelt, and Ed Miliband, leader of Britain’s Labour Party, is now trying to wrap himself in Benjamin Disraeli’s “One Nation” Tory cloak. Such cross-dressing is a sign of change, but politicians have a long way to go. The right’s instinct is too often to make government smaller, rather than better. The supposedly egalitarian left’s failure is more fundamental. Across the rich world, welfare states are running out of money, growth is slowing and inequality is rising—and yet the left’s only answer is higher tax rates on wealth-creators. Messrs Obama, Miliband and Hollande need to come up with something that promises both fairness and progress. Otherwise, everyone will pay. |
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