1225【作文放狗贴】【脑残】狗主攒人品。。

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首先说一下。。本人可以算是最不正经的GMAT备考人士。。复习时间短。。英语水平也有限。。但我相信广大有经验的同志们能够从我的残狗中寻觅到一丝有用的东东。。。所以在这废话一下吧就。。。为下次攒人品。。

一样一样来, 我有点罗嗦，，，一篇写下去看着麻烦。。我多写几个帖子。。。
【作文】
考得是Megemart store准备建成一站式服务商场的。以前见过，大致内容如下：
公司今年sales increased 20 percent, 这个可以归咎于我们今年新开的一个xx部门。人们现在很喜欢一站式服务因为很方便，因此我们在接下来的几年里可以继续增加部门，比如clothing along with 两个部门。而且我们应该继续plan to 增加其他部门，记得有automatic什么部门，还有repairement部门，还有一个忘了，因为我们所在的the area 现在还没有这种综合性的部门，所以我们各种有竞争力啊。

个人感觉可以从以下几个角度写：（大家觉得不对尽管喷！）
1、错误因果。今年销售增长不一定就是新开的那个部门造成的，可能是其他原因比如今年经济形势景气啊神马的，这个原因好多的
2、错误类比。XX部门开起来增加销售不代表其他那些乱七八糟的也可以，很有可能因为涉及的领域多，缺乏经验，risk增大，不好管理，就歇菜了
3、all things equal。 今年你增加了，就说未来几年会盈利，明年突然来个经济危机啥的，照样歇菜
4、（这点我不知道算啥。。感觉可以算是错误假设？？）目前这片区域没有一站式服务的商场，就代表你开了就赚钱了？？很有可能这块地方本来消费能力就没有多么强，而且没有一站式服务的商场也有可能这片区域里面各个部门都有比较专业的store比如专门的服装或者机械设备啥的，比你的服务好产品多而且已经有一部分忠实客户了，你开了一站式服务的就能竞争过哪些专业店铺么？？？

哦呵呵我找到了原文和样文
The following is part of a business plan created by the management of the Megamart grocery store.

“Our total sales have increased this year by 20 percent since we added a pharmacy section to our grocery store. Clearly, the customer’s main concern is the convenience afforded by one-stop shopping. The surest way to increase our profits over the next couple of years, therefore, is to add a clothing department along with an automotive supplies and repair shop. We should also plan to continue adding new departments and services, such as a restaurant and a garden shop, in subsequent years. Being the only store in the area that offers such a range of services will give us a competitive advantage over other local stores.”

Megamart杂货店的管理层的商务计划：
由于我们在杂货店内加了药剂部分，今年我们的总体销售额增加了20%。显然，顾客主要关注的是一次性购物的便利性。在今后两年内提高我们的利润的最佳方法是增加一个成衣部门和一个汽车配件和维修商店。我们同时也应该在最后的纪念中继续增加新的部门和服务，比如餐馆，园艺商店。成为本地唯一的提供如此广泛服务的商店将给我们带来超越其他商店的竞争优势。

1. 总体销售额增加20%利润不一定也会相应增加

2. 销售额的增加不一定是由于增加了这个部门造成的

3. 以后是否还会有如此效果不一定。因为可能已经有企业提供更专业更优质的商品和服务。

1. 没有建立因果。sequence不能证明因果。不知道收入来自哪个section. 很可能是有其他的原因：很可能是pharmacy没有利润。利润来自其他的部分。比如食品等，质量提高，或者经济情况好，人们有更多的demand。

2. 销售额增加不一定是profit增加。

3. 错误类比：就算加入了pharmacy引起了收入提高，也不能说增加的clothing和其他也会引起收入。很可能人们不是因为convenience，而是对medicine的需要。很可能其他的，人们更愿意到special shops。

The management of the Megamart grocery store concludes that adding new departments and services is the surest way to increase profits over the next couple of years. They are led to this conclusion because of a 20 percent increase in total sates, realized after the addition of a pharmacy section to the grocery store. On the basis of this experience, they concluded that the convenience of one-stop shopping was the main concern of their customers. The management’s argument is faulty in several respects.

In the first place, the management assumes that the increase in total sales was due to the addition of the pharmacy section. However, the only evidence offered to support this conclusion is the fact that the addition of the pharmacy preceded the increase in sales. But the mere fact that the pharmacy section was added before the increase occurred is insufficient grounds to conclude that it was responsible for the increase. Many other factors could bring about this same result. Lacking a detailed analysis of the source of the sales increase, it would be sheer folly to attribute the increase to the addition of the pharmacy section.

In the second place, even if it were the case that the increase in total sales was due to the addition of the pharmacy section, this fact alone is insufficient to support the claim that adding additional departments will increase sales even further. It is quite possible that the addition of the pharmacy section increased sales simply because there was no other pharmacy in the vicinity. The additional proposed departments and services, on the other hand, might be well represented in the area and their addition might have no impact whatsoever on the profits of the store. In other words, there may be relevant differences between the pharmacy section and the additional proposed sections that preclude them from having a similar effect on the sales of the store.

In conclusion, the management’s argument is not well-reasoned. To strengthen the conclusion, the management must provide additional evidence linking the addition of the pharmacy section to the increase in total sales. It must also show that there are no exceptional reasons for the sales increase due to the pharmacy section that would not apply to the other proposed additions.