【Native Speaker每日综合训练—26系列】【26-18】经管

一个大番茄

先去刷GWD,晚上回来做~

AceJ

默默跟上

A very rational award
Time2: 1'57" a rational Nobel prize in economy: Fama -- efficient market; Shiller -- irrational exuberance; Hansen -- asset prices
Time3: 1'35" analze three guys' differnet but related and even complementary pionions about asset prices and market
Time4: 1'32" Fed used to ignore Mr. Shiller's work, so did many other investers

Why is the liquidity trap?
Time5: 2'34" Naive Friedmanism, in which money supply growth is the only monetary variable that matters, is wrong
Time6: 1'41" This is not just historical arcana. The critical question is why that should be the case.

Methods for all moments
Time7: 6'33"
Fame, Shiller and Hansen have established most of the surprisingly small amount economics has to say about asset prices
Whereas Mr Fama’s work demonstrated that short-run prices were unpredictable, Mr Shiller’s showed that over periods of several years assets could move in foreseeable ways. Hansen developed statistical technique
What all three laureates share is a commitment to backing up theoretical work with rigorous empirical analysis. We are making a little bit of progress, but there’s a lot more to be done

dianadai0029

谢谢杀杀！

Part I Main idea
There has been a social norm that don't talk to strangers. However, strangers, with who we are not familiar, make sameness to us. Technology shapes the relations with strangers. Corporations and institutions also embrace strangers to broad their business.
Part II
[Time 2] 1:55
Nobel Prize awarded three economists for their contribution to predict the prices. Mr.F, who is one of the winners, believes that people can't foresee the stock prices in the short-term.
[Time 3]1:50
Mr. S's theory is the relationship between stock price and the intricate value. In the long run, asset value will revert to the mean value, though the prices may fluctuate in the short-term.
[Time 4]1:47
Central banks use the wrong way to control the bubble, which is raise the interest rate. People should think about the theories of  Mr.F and Mr.S, when they make investment.
[Time 5]2:34 Friedmanism??
Fed did control the monetary shock, but that is far from enough.
[Time 6]2:31
The author believe that the Fed didn't use aggressive monetary policy to manage the recession, instead it has used the monetary tighten polity due to the afraid of high inflation rate.
Part III
[Time 7]7:02
Mr.F's theory: the stock prices are unpredictable in the short-term.
Mr. S's theory: People could use the dividend index to predict the stock price in the long run.
Mr. H, another Nobel Prize winner in 2002, argued that the investment connected with macroeconomics, and sometimes people make irrational decisions on investment.

紫色精灵946

还有4天就要上战场了，最近开始难以集中注意力，读题不入脑子……谁能给点建议我该怎么办……
time2 2:09 .It is arkward that Fama share the prize with Shiller since they hold the different views on the efficiency of the markets.Then it shows the Fama's research,and points out the limits.
time3 1:40 .It shows the prospective of Shiller.He thinks that prices were much volatile than their intrinsic value.
time4 1:44 .The happening of economics bubble cannot be prevented and cannot be hidden as well.According to Shiller's discovery,those investors  cannot claim they have not been warned before the bubble.
time5 2:26 .Monetary shocks have large effects on the real economy but they do not cause the depression.Acturally the Fed did some measures to target the expectation.
time6 2:27 .Whether the monetary stabilisation that the interest rate fell to near zero can work.The author stands for the big tent approach.The argument shows how would the fiscal stimulus work.Finally ,it shows the bottleneck.
time7 6:41 .The prizes to three economists contain several apparent contradiction.The the article shows the detail of the differences views of each economists.Although the three economists work on the same field,there is still a long way to go to make more understanding of this issue.

pennyz

1:36s
the noble prize was rewarded to the economists who make contribution to the evaluation of market
but the odd is they possess different opinions.though met with some dispute ,Mr Fram's efficiency theory  still
validate
1:32s
the theory talk about the market price and intrisic value
the market price in the stock is differnt from the common commodity,which will trigger fewer demands
because of this kind of irration,the market price for stock and real estate all rise more than expected
1;22s
Greenspan put may motivate the investors to do some irrational investment and the investors will always ignore Mr S
hiller's work in the investment
SPEED 的第二篇在讲什么呢
6：57s
MR F&MR S's idea about how the market is operate is  quiet different but not irreconcilble
the brief introductory of F and S's theory
more to do in the future



greenspan put
格林斯潘对策
FED主席针对防止市场大幅持续下跌而采取的行动
为避免投资者的避险心理阻碍美国经济增长，格林斯潘采取了降息举措
cyclically
周期性的
cyclically adjusted profits
周期性调整利润
index-tracking industry
指数跟踪行业
underwrite
给。。。保险，承诺支付

饼干小熊

T1 1'30
T2 1'28
T3 1'30
T4 2'11
T5 2'31
T6 4'34

Cateriona

卤煮辛苦~
Time2(1'48.07) Although it seems odd that three econimists who hold different views win the Noble Prize together, they have common ground.
               Mr.F revolutionary  notion led to the development of the index-tracking industry.
Time3(1'55.33) Mr.S found he relationship between the price of shares and their intrinsic value---prices were much more volatile than their intrinsic value would suggest. His finding not invalidate Mr F’s insight.
Time4(2'06.25) Some people thought that it was impossible to spot bubbles and it was harmful to the economy by using higher interest rates to prevent bubbles.
               Mr S's work is still ignored bu many people.
Time5(2'45.29) Monetary shocks effect the real economy .Fed has done something to reach the target.
Time6(2'25.33) Fed not use monetary policy to manage the recession but use the monetary tighten policy.

越看越乱

宝宝的瓜

先占个座~

michelle1025

生日 fighting~

掌管 6        00:07:35.14        00:17:47.04
掌管 5        00:02:25.70        00:10:11.90
掌管 4        00:02:20.20        00:07:46.20
掌管 3        00:01:28.93        00:05:25.99
掌管 2        00:01:58.59        00:03:57.06
掌管 1        00:01:58.46        00:01:58.46

limin501

time 2
It is little odd that FAMA who is one of the noble prizewinner in economics should share the reward with Robert and Hansen.
Fama’s great insight is that the movement  of  those  prises  are  not  predicatable  in short  terms  and found managers are not likely to beat with the market.
time 3

It is hard to make money from short-termtrading. In the short term,the prices were much more volatile than theirintrinsic value ,but in the long term,the valuation of assets tends to revertto the mean.

therecent bubbles in asset markets, datas were showed that house prices risesharply recently compare to the last few years.

time 4

It is impossible to spot the bubbles whenthey are happening, even today ,too many of people who play the financial marketignore the Mr shiller’s work. But after the noble prizes of Fama, they can notclaim that they have not been warned.

Obstacle

Three professors won the noble ofeconomics. One of them is fama who began studying data on asset prices a longtime ago.Fama points out that the markets react quickly and then once againbecome unpredictable.

Whereas Mr Fama’s work demonstrated thatshort-run prices were unpredictable, Mr s showed that long periods of severalyears assets could move in foreseeable ways.