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- 2013-3-28
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"The following appeared in a realtor’s brochure in a large city:
“Now is the perfect time to buy a house in our city. Over the past five years, average home prices in our region have nearly doubled. But average stock prices in the national stock market have actually declined over the same period. So homeowners have seen an increase in value for their housing investment during the last five years that far exceeds what they could have made by investing in the stock market. Our city’s residents can surely achieve a similar profit over the next five years. Furthermore, if residents invest in a home, they can enjoy the use of the home while its value increases, whereas money invested in stocks would not contribute to their quality of life in the same way that owning a home would. Therefore, all the residents of our city should invest their money in a home.”
由于在过去5年中,某城市的home prices比average stock price增长大 有些stock price甚至下降了, 而且投资房产既可以享受住房又增加投资收益所以建议all residents in the city都去做房产投资
1 remain unchanged past 5 yrs 2 gratuitous assumption: 享受+收益 3 vested interest 4 false dellima stock VS housing
1、 过去不能预测未来, 房子在过去的五年升值并不能代表在未来的几年也升值
2、 错误的假设, 错误的假设房子能够contribute to their quality of life, 而投资股票不能,很可能人们买房子仅仅是为了投资,而不是自己住进去享受生活,而有些人就能从买股票中获得满足,(他们把买股票当成他们的兴趣之一)
3、非此即彼类错误
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