argu 60,求批改

winnalegh

The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
提纲：天气不一定冷；人们不一定用heating oil；Consolidated‘s oil不一定畅销


The author suggests to invest in Consolidated Industries.   Giving  the fact that the climate condition of last year and the prediction of weather that the cold weather will last for a long time, the author supposes this year will be cold too and the prediction is reliable.   Additionally, the author assumes the residents will use heating oil as fuel when the weather is cold and investing Consolidated Industries will gain profits because its major business is the sale of heating oil.   But his/her assumption may be not warranted.



Firstly, the last year's cold condition and the forecast of climates can be only a reference, whether this year's weather and that of the following years' is cold or not is uncertain.  So it is unconvincing to acclaim a cold weather on the assumption that the condition will be just the same as last year's or that is predicted.   If this region become more warmer this year and even next years, it is possible that residents or many residents may not need to use heating oil.  In the case, investmentin heating oil is not a good decision.  



Additionally, the author cites a fact that residents traditionally use oil for heating, by which he/she assumes that in this year or in the future, people or most people will still choose oil as the major fuel for heating.  However, before any survey is taken to make clear what the people use and will use for heating,  to assuming this is unreasonable.   For it is likely that more people would like to use electricity or gases for heating for these kinds of  fuels are more clean and cheap maybe.   If so,  it is better not to invest in heating oil.



Even lots of residents will use oil for heating, there is no effective evidence to support the advice to invest in Consolidated Industries.   The author just cites that Consolidated's major business is the retail sale of home oil, but he/she fails to prove that most people prefer Consolidated' oil which is more important when considering whether investment in it will gain profits or not.     That oil is its  major business does not necessary mean that Consolidated’s oil is of high quality or most residents buy its oil.  So, before investing on Consolidated Industries, it is better to make a survey about whether its oil is welcome to residents.



So before investing on heating oil and especially on Consolidated Industries, it  is better to consider carefully the weather of the region, the residents' usage of oil and the condition of Consolidated.

The author will strength his/her suggestion if he/ she can provide accurate evidence that most residents will use heating oil and they prefer Consolidated's comparing with others'.

普渡哥

The author will strength his/her suggestion if he/ she can provide 。。。
will have to, or will want to吧