又超时了……
People should undertake risky action only after they have carefully considered its consequences.
20:53-21:49
The speaker contends that risky actions should not be taken unless their potential outcomes have been examined and considered carefully. Although this argument seems to be plausible and can eliminate some possible disastrous results, it, however, is not in line with common sense we hold in everyday life for that it distorts the nature of “risk”.
Admittedly, pre-consideration has a lot of merits as it allows people to plan and consider all the possible consequences, including good ones and bad ones, and thus a conclusion can be drawn upon which actions whose results are not likely to be beneficial may be undermined before they are actually carried out. Consider an example of a father in poverty who is not able to feed his five-year-old daughter. He may attempt to employ illegal means, such as robbery, fraud and forgery, to obtain some money when his daughter really needs some money for her primary education. By considering the possible consequences of that illegal risky action, the father may not take such a huge risk-even if he gets rid of the police and may be able to support her daughter financially; he can never be a father as great and clean as before. By considering those potential outcomes thoroughly, the father may quit considering this idea. In fact, many of us have some unrealistic or even harmful ideas, it is considering the possible results of those risky actions, no matter consciously or not, impedes, or promotes our actions.
However, the speaker begs the nature of the problem in that he seems to assume most of the time possible results can be estimated even before those actions are taken, which is counter to our everyday common sense. No matter how plausible Murphy’s Law or Maya’s prediction of the 2012 disaster, no one is able to predict what will happen until it has happened. There are myriads of chemical researches which are primarily in line with the call of “chemistry for better life” end up with exacerbating the already delicate plant. Consider the atomic energy which is simply considered an alternative energy enhancing our efficiency and yield in industry is employed mainly in war to kill hundreds of millions of innocent human beings. Who can say the scientists have not considered the possible outcomes? They have, of course; yet it is still not possible to draw an accurate conclusion of what will happen in the future—for our conclusion is based on the current experience and observation which may not be accurate at all for circumstances in the future.
Furthermore, if we examine the word “risky”, we may find it slippery and difficult to define. For me, everything whose results can not be determined can be regarded as risky, including scientific research mentioned above, the apply of new policies and laws, revolution, career choosing, or even everyday activities like driving, working or even drinking. No one can really predict what will happen, and thus everything happening around us can be defined as “risky actions”. Then should we consider whether to eat an apple or not before eating it? Should we versus the possibility of chocking or a worm appearing to all the nutrition and great pleasure an apple can bring? The case of the revolution is similar. If Abraham Lincoln had kept considering all the people that would be involved and get injured in the Civil War and missed the perfect moment to start the war, people of color in the United States may not have gained their equal rights.
To sum up, considering beforehand for risky actions can be beneficial. However, it is not necessary to consider each and every risky action, as most of the time it is not only difficult to define “risk”, or to predict it.
-- by 会员 d0gzi (2012/10/26 1:58:16)
你的第一点和第三点很好,值得学习。