argument146，诚意球拍，谢谢

糖心

146 The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.


In the memo, the author predicts that the heating oil demand will increase in the next five years due to the abnormal cold last winter, weather prediction that the coldness will last and the fact that new homes are being built. However, there are several missing important evidences that greatly weaken his argument, making it unconvincing as it stands.
The first piece of missing evidence is that the cold winter pattern will last for several years. The author cannot convince me by merely pointing out that there were 90 days with below-normal temperature last winter and by citing the prediction of climate forecasters. Although it is possible that the cold winter last year is an indication of a certain climate pattern with cold winters and the forecaster’s prediction might be sound, it is equally possible the other way around. In the former case, the author’s prediction of cold winters in the future is convincing, otherwise, it is dubious at best. Without evidence that could prove that the abnormal cold last year and the forecast are sound indications of cold winters in the future, the author cannot convince me that it will be the case.
The second missing evidence is that the newly-built homes are promise for increased heating oil demand. Perhaps those new housing also use oil as the major fuel for heating, then the author’s prediction that heating oil demand will increase is convincing. On the other hand, it is highly possible that these new homes don’t use oil as heating fuel. Instead, they use air conditioners. In that scenario, the author’s argument that heating oil demand will be greatly increased due to these new homes is greatly weakened. To better evaluate the argument, I need to know the heating facilities of these newly built homes and whether they will use oil as their major heating fuel.
A final piece of missing evidence is that if the heating oil demand will increase during the next five years. Even if the author can provide evidence to prove that the cold winter pattern will last for several years and the newly built house do consume oil for heating, I am still unconvincing about the trend the author predicts. It seems natural that people will consume more oil in longer and colder winters, and oil demand is sure to increase, making the author’s argument persuasive. However, the demand of oil is influenced by many other factors except for temperature. Perhaps that area will experience due to its cold winters. People will move out of the area or spend winters elsewhere. In that case, the demand of heating oil may probably decrease or remain constant. Without evidence to rule out these circumstances, the author cannot convince me that the demand will indeed increase.
In sum, the author’s argument is totally unconvincing due to several missing evidences. To strengthen it, the author must provide evidences including the following: 1. cold winter climate patterns will last in the next few years; 2. the newly built homes will consume oil for heating; 3. rule out other factors influencing the demand for oil such as demographic change.
(35 min)
这篇感觉写得不好，诚请大佬给些建议，万分感谢。

竹林中人

我觉得中间段每段的内容安排应当不是先直接给出题目所需要提供的evidence,这个要根据你对题目依据和结论的分析推出来的，没有这个分析推导的过程，看不出你的分析能力

糖心

这种instruction的题目感觉不太好写，谢谢版主的点评，我再想想。