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Latiaslee

没写过几篇TOEFL经验……求批改求帮助！！！谢谢各路大神！！！
TOPIC：DO U AGREE WITH THE STATEMENT: IN 20 YEARS THERE WILL FEWER CARS IN USED THAN THERE ARE TODAY。

As a finance-majored student, I have to admit at the very beginning that I am very reluctant to make any kind of predictions. Yes or no, who knows? However, as a well-nurtured human being, I hope the answer will be no. Luckily, I am able to find some rationales.

Why do people use cars? Simply put, cares are convenient and fast for travel. Time is precious in a fast-paced society and everyone just loves it. Okay, if so, why would, anything, there be fewer cars than there are today?

In the first place, there will be fewer people on this planet. Why? Aging is a serious problem not only in China but also in western countries such as America with baby boom times people subsiding and retiring. Meanwhile, growth rates are negative for many developed countries including Japan and Germany. More are leaving and fewer are coming. We all know the result requires only simple math. Then if, as a reasonable assumption, average number of cars each citizen possesses keeps constant, there simply will be fewer cars. Again, simple math.

At this point, some may argue the average number will definitely increase since more can afford a car with the increase of life quality and the decrease of cost to build one.

Here are my next two points: demand for automobile industry will probably stop increasing while the supply side will also hit its bottleneck.

To justify the former one: people will gradually start to realize it is neither environmentally friendly nor cost-efficient to drive his/her own car. Sharing cars will be popular with the running out of earth natural resources. Government bounds to put more restrictions on energy companies which will in turn make oil more expense. Also, policies and campeigns for car-sharing plan will be on the stage not before long. Therefore, average number is not likely to growth, at least not steadily.

As for the latter one: economies of scale will be no long prevailing as more merges and acquisitions take place in this industry. To explain it further, a larger output will increase average cost of a car instead of lowing it, which is termed diseconomies of scale. In thi sense, automobile producers will find it more profitable to keep the yield within certain range, not to expand as violently as possible. Hence, the supply side will be quite.

All in all, the situation I build above requires certain assumptions and restrictions which means the future may well turn out to be totally different. For example, a new type of recyclable energy is invented and can be applied commercially to cars leading to the third expansion of automobile industry. Anyway, my ultimate hope is that people will eventually figure out a way to live peaceful with the exterior environment and whether it is by reducing car numbers or the opposite, it does not really matter.