argument 83 求拍

legenderek

83 The following is a letter to the editor of anenvironmental magazine.

"In 1975 a wildlife census found that there wereseven species of amphibians in Xanadu National Park, with abundant numbers ofeach species. However, in 2002 only four species of amphibians were observed inthe park, and the numbers of each species were drastically reduced. There hasbeen a substantial decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide, and globalpollution of water and air is clearly implicated. The decline of amphibians inXanadu National Park, however, almost certainly has a different cause: in 1975,trout—which are known to eat amphibian eggs—were introduced into thepark."

Write a response in which you discuss whatspecific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how theevidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
初次写argument， 开头结尾，还有body的各段首句用的模板，希望大家看看会不会被当做雷同文。。。。

In this argument the author concludes that the decline ofamphibians in Xanadu National park is due to the introduction of trout into thepark in 1975. At the first glance, this argumentappears to be somewhat forceful. However, close scrutiny of the evidencereveals that it accomplishes little toward supporting the director’s claim. Fromthe logical perspective, this argument suffers from three logical flaws.

To begin with, the thresholdproblem with this argument is that the arguer failed to show whether the observation: only four species ofamphibians were found and the number for each species was dramatically reducedin 2002 is reliable. No sufficient evidence is provided to clarify if the observationis conducted by some professional and neutral. It is entirely possible thatsome tourists who are interested in amphibians did the study in only severaldays and published their results in their blogs. However, in fact, all the seven species in the national park all lived welland in prosperous numbers.

Even if the reliability of theobservation was acceptable, another problem that weakens the logic of theargument is that the author simply assumed the existence of trout will lead toa decline in amphibian number as their eggs would be eaten by tout. It canhardly convince me as no direct evidence was provided that trout in the XanaduNational park would eat the eggs. Perhaps there are much more other food sourcesthat trout no longer eat amphibian eggs there. It is also possible that trout wasextinct before long since its introduction, as the climate was not suitable for trout living. Without sufficientevidence ruling out the above possibilities, it is unfair to blame amphibian’sdecline to trout’s introduction.
Before I come to my conclusion,it is necessary to point out the last flaw involved in this argument. If theauthor wanted to rule out the possibility that the global pollution of waterand air leaded to thedecline of amphibian number, evidence showing the environment in the nationalpark was still in a good condition need to be presented. Without such supportingdata, it is reasonable forthe readers to assume that the pollution played a major factor in amphibian number declining.
To sum up, this arguer fails toillustrate his claim that the introduction of trout into the park in1975 lead to the decline of amphibians, as the evidence cited in the analysis does not providestrong support to what the arguer maintains. To make the argument moreforceful, the author would have to provide more information with regardto the observation conducted in 2002 to prove its validity.  In addition, it is better for him to conduct aresearch in the national park to check whether trout would still eat amphibian eggs there and the environment condition is still suitable for amphibian.Therefore, if the argument had included the given factors discussed above, itwould have been more thorough and logically acceptable.

竹林中人

最好附上提纲

竹林中人

关于第一点，我觉得最好是说这个结果是不可靠不可信的，质疑的重点是调查方法上。比如，因为动物的活动范围大，常常有季节性的迁徙，因此需要确切知道一个地区物种的数量，需要较长时间的观测。题目中的这个结果不能说它没有evidence，只是它的这种evidence  is pool

竹林中人

第二点写的不错

竹林中人

最后，结尾不必再概括的那么长，一笔带过即可，短而有力就好。另外，语言上觉得LZ可能在有意识地注意和锤炼，加油！

legenderek

谢谢~