Argument~希望有进步！

fanny89757

前两天上了XDF，Argument写起来有种豁然开朗的感觉！但愿内容上有进步咯！
164.The following was written by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. At present, the nearest jazz club is over 60 miles away from Monroe; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. In addition, there is ample evidence of the popularity of jazz in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly.' Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. We therefore predict that the C Note cannot help but make money."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

a group of developers         city of M            questions

A1: tremendously profitable

A2: 60away--> CN would have all market

A3: 100,000 attend festival last summer

musicians live in M

radio pragram in M is J

--> J is popular

A4: nationwild study: jazz fan spend per year on jazz entertainment

--> predict CN makemoney

In the memo which the group of developers of Monroe (M) express that a jazz music club could be a enterprise with gigantic profit for a number of evidence.Although the author lists some tangible digit, it still hard to explain the questions about proving the predition of profitable enterprise.

The distance of 60 miles awayfrom M to the nearest jazz club indicates that the preposed club called C Note (CN) would abtain the whole market of the local area.However, there are two questions of this part of predition.The threshold question is that the club which located at 60 miles away is a kind of jazz club, but the CN is just a club, not only for jazz.It is possible that the city of M has many clubs but no one is a jazz club as the one 60 miles away and the residents in M are able to enjoy jazz in the other club.What's more, the people in M may be prefer to go to the further jazz club for the singers there or something like that or if they have a car or bus, the 60 miles would not be so long.It is hardly for CN to take all local market.

The popularity of jazz in M is another question should be disputed. Although thepeople who attended the M's jazz festival over 100,000 at last summer, the author fails to assume that all these audients are from M. Besides, the fact of jazz musicians live in M might not be a justifiable reason, and even the highest-rated radio program in M is about jazz which could indicate that the listeners of radio in favor of the jazz music program.On one hand, the festival of jazz would be kown to many jazz fans who are not local residents by the internet or other methods, thereby, the author's assumption is quite absolute.On the other, when people finding a place to live, they may consider many conditions, like the location, the travalling, and the price, even they are musicians. If the author could make more survey for the reason for why the musicians choose the place, or consider the number of the audients participate in the study of the rate of program.

The last point I want todiscuss here is the study around the nation which clarify the jazz fans' spending of jazz entertainment.The entertainment of jazz is not only in a jazz club.The people who are fervent the jazz music are willing to have jazz entertainment in many interesting ways.Further more, the survey of the fans is in a nationwild range which is including M but not the same as M.The cited $1,000 spending for each fan in a year is an average number in the country.Apparently, the survey could not represent the M jazz fans' entertainment in every year, and  the author should add more details of M may useful to prove the conclusion.  

To sum up, if the author could make more survey or consider the number of the audients participate in the study of the rate of program, the digit may be justified.Besides, the residents in M are able to enjoy jazz in the other club so the distance would not be a question to them. Actually, the author should add more details of M may useful to prove the conclusion.

字数是551，语法问题，写完扫过一遍，看的不够仔细，晚一点我再仔细查一遍！求拍哦！

普渡哥

predition是啥意思啊？