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The director claimed that in order to prevent serious patient infections, they should supply UltraClean at all hand-washing stations in their hospital. The director concluded this argument based on the fact that the effectiveness of UltraClean over the normal liquid hand soaps in their laboratory study, their test of UltraClean in hospital in Workby, together with that the few reported infection than other hospitals. The director gave a seemingly cogent argument. However, there are a lot of untenable unstated assumption made by the director, which is presented and examined as follows. 第一段: 复述了原话的理由推理-->However 我觉得推理做了许多不可靠的假设。
To begin with, the director assumed the validity of their study, without giving further details about the survey. What if the effectiveness is related to the concentration of the soaps? If so, the validity of the study is in ruin. It is possible that in the experiment , the concentration of the normal soap was slight, while that of UltraClean was high. Thus maybe UltraClean was as effect as the normal soap. It is entire unnecessary to supply such things throughout their hospital. The director didn't give further information to substantiate his/her assumption to rule out the above possible situation.
第二段: 指出作者假设了实验的可靠性--->导致实验结果的其他可能原因.....-->如果实验不可靠,那么就没有必要在所有医院实行。
Even if the effectiveness of UltraClean is better than that of the liquid hand soaps, the director hastily assumed that the only difference between the hospital in Workby and other hospital in their group is the usage of UltraClean. It is definitely possible that the quality of the doctor and nurse affected the infection. Because doctor or nurse without proper qualification maybe forgot to clean her/his hands before a surgery. If the assumption made by the director is invalid, then the test is meaningless and cannot convince me of the effectiveness of UltraClean.
第三段:即使如上假设成立,作者还假设workby医院和其他医院的唯一区别是用liquid hand soaps 和用 UltraClean。----->其他可能--> 如果假设不可靠,那么这个对比是没有意义的。
Even though the above two assumptions prove to be true, the director also made another unstated and doubtful assumption that the serious infection is the majority of the infection prevented in the hospital in Workby. However, it is entirely possible that only the tiny infection was prevented by the usage of UltraClean, while the severe infection consisted of the most of the reported infections mentioned in the memo. If the assumption made by the director proves false, thus the director cannot make the conclusion that the usage of UltraClean will prevent serious patient infections.
第四段: 即使以上2个假设成立,作者还假设了可疑的假设............-->可能原因----->假设不成立所带来的影响。
In conclusion,although it is understandable to put a newly invented antibacterial hand soaps into the hospital to safe people from being infected, the argument presented is so unconvincing that may be cast on doubt of gaining personal profits from the factory that produces UltraClean. Thus, the director cannot convince me without providing enough background to support his/her unstated assumptionsso as to rule out all the feasible and possible situations presented. 承认从日常角度讲可以理解作者的动机,但是论据假设1)。。。。2)。。 3)缺乏更多信息证实,不能够让人信服。 |
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