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98题 总述错误 Merely based onthe senseless reasoning, the author hastily makes the fallacious and ridiculousconclusion that to replace its children's books section with a cafe, MonarchBooks can increase profits and ward off competition from Book and Bean. Theauthor makes such egregious flaws as cause and effect, statistic investigation,stay unchanged, false analogy, insufficient investigation and analyses. 类比错误 First of all, asmentioned in the argument, the author implies that replacing its children'sbooks section with a cafe, Monarch Books can increase profits and ward offcompetition from Book and Bean. The authorhastily makes the conclusion by falsely making the irrational analogy between MonarchBooks and Book and Bean, ignoring the gaps of various situations between thetwo including the size of two bookstores, convenience for the citizens,commercial trade, the customer satisfaction, etc. it is possible that it ismore convenient for citizen to go to Book and Bean than going to Monarch Books.The other possibility is that the decoration in Book and Bean is more suitablefor citizens, so citizens prefer to going to Book and Bean. 时间类错误类比 Additionally, theauthor implies that since its opening in Collegeville twenty years ago, MonarchBooks has developed a large customer base due to its reader-friendly atmosphereand wide selection of books on all subjects. It is taken for granted that aremained unchanged over the twenty years. However, due to the geographic,economic, technological alternation, the scenario could be severely modified. Twentyyears ago, the scenarios were that going to Monarch Books is to discuss currentaffair, while it could have changed that citizens going there is to relax themselves,and surf in the vast sea of books. 数据调查错误 Building upon theimplication that given recent national census data indicating a significantdecline in the percentage of the population under age ten, sales of children’sbooks are likely to decline. In addition, there is a severe weakness in thestatistical investigation. The amount of the sample is not ample enough tosupport the analyses. What’s more, the vaguely usage of “a large base” is toosubjective to insinuate a large proportion of the sample. It ‘s highly possiblethat they investigated 6000, however the entire sample is around 6million. The generalanalysis of the insufficient sample is not enough to adumbrate the localcharacteristics. It might be effective that the scenario in this localphenomenon is drastically different. On the other hand, it’s imperative that weshould pay attention to the carriage of the investigation---whether thequestionnaire represents the investigators’ subjective propensity. For instance,he might have to give us the data about the decrement of the population underage ten in some area. The national census data also cannot give the readers theaccurate percentage of the population under age ten. 因果错误 Even though it mayprove true that the two scenarios can be analyzed and the statistic arerepresentative, yet the author commits the “cause and effect” fallacy. It’sarbitrary for the author to draw the conclusion that replacing its children’sbooks section with a café will result in that Monarch Books can increaseprofits and ward off competition from Book and Bean. Nevertheless, otherrelevant reasons might have caused the effect as well. For example, when MonarchBooks is decorated cozy, it will appeal to more readers to welcome, the otherpossibility is that its location should be more convenient to customers, thebooks in Monarch Books should be more interesting and novel for a large rangeof readers. Moreover, it’s highly possible that the aforementioned reason hasnothing to do with the alleged result. To sum up, theconclusion reached in the argument lacks credibility since the evidence citedin the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer claims. To makethe argument more convincing, the arguer should provide more informationconcerning of facts, investigation of more citizens and solid proof to betterevaluate the argument, otherwise the argument is logically unacceptable. |
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