argu 60~ 求拍

dengjia

The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that

specializes in the delivery of heating oil.



"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have

traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region

experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict

that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new

homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because

of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased

demand for heating oil during the next five years."



Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate

the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the

argument.



In this argument, the arguer predicts that the region of northeastern United States will experience an increasing demand for heating oil during the next five years. To justify this prediction, the arguer points out that the region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and will continue for several years. Meanwhile, the arguer reasons that many new built homes will increase the use of oil. At first glance, this argument seems logical and persuasive at first glance, however, it concludes some critical fallacies.

In the first place, in the region of northeastern United States, people have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. But the arguer fails to demonstrate that oil will still be used for heating and will not be substituted by other energy in the next five years. It is possible that with the development of science and technology, new energy with less cost and higher heat will be used in the immediate next year. Another possibility is that the price of oil may be increasing because of economical situation and other factors, thus choice of oil as major fuel will be changed into coal or natural gas. Therefore, demands for heating oil may not increase during the next five years.

In addition, the arguer fails to provide enough evidence that the region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures will continue for several more years. The region may be influenced by its vicinities in last heating season and may not be influenced continually in the next several years. Additionally, the climate forecasters' prediction may not accurate for not getting enough statistics. Furthermore, even if the region would increase its demands for oil in the several years, it may be in three or four years but not five years.

What's more, new homes may not mean the population in the region will increase. Maybe the residents are rich enough to build more than one home, thus they may only use one house at one time, and the use of oil will not increase. Moreover, these new homes may be used for other aims rather than living in, such as for investment.

To sum up, although the reasoning behind the prediction that use of oil in this region will increase seems logical at first glace, the prediction mentioned above is not based on valid evidence and persuasive reasoning.

普渡哥

in the first place,然后应该是in the second place..

in addition 和what's more 差不多，用在第三段开头。

竹林中人

字数显得不够吧，只有390左右，第四段显得太薄了，跟前面两段最好差不多的字数，然后有一点就是你没有拼写和打字格式上的错误，不错。
加油

dengjia

thank you guys