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The growing popularity of computer-based activities was widely predicted to result in a corresponding decline in television viewing. Recent studies have found that, in the United States, people who own computers watch, on average, significantly less television than people who do not own computers. In itself, however, this finding (studies) does very little to show that computer use tends to reduce television viewing time (hypothesis), since __________.
第一句给出一个解释(hypothesis): increased computer use --> a decline in TV viewing. 第二句给出recent studies用来support这个hypothesis。最后一句是main conclusion，意思是recent studies无法support这个hypothesis。Main conclusion的重点是this finding does very little to show that (hypothesis), 而不是computer use tends to reduce TV viewing time. 如果把main conclusion的重点弄错了，很容易错选B/E，认为computer use不一定会reduce TV viewing time是正确选项。答案C告诉我们因为studies中的computer use和TV viewing没有关系（用电脑的人本来就不爱看电视，不是因为用电脑导致），所以this finding does very little to show that 用电脑多和看电视少有因果关系。
The growing popularity of computer-based activities was widely expected to result in a decline in television viewing, since it had been assumed that people lack sufficient free time to maintain current television-viewing levels while spending increasing amounts of free time on the computer. That assumption, however, is evidently false: in a recent mail survey concerning media use, a very large majority of respondents who report increasing time spent per week using computers report no change in time spent watching television.
这两道题目都是用溯因推理(abductive reasoning)的论证过程，对观察的现象给出解释。用更多的例子证实／证伪这个hypothesis。问题都出在用studies／evidence能否有效证明这个hypothesis里面存在的因果关系，要看sample有没有bias，要看所讨论的范围是否一致。
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发表于 2017-2-28 11:42:51
