第一篇argument哪位高人能指点一二~不慎感激~

格林、没有童话

题库31题
The argument draws an inference from a comparison between coffee and cola in drikers from age 10 through age 60 to a judgement that we should consider transferring our investment from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.This conclusion is relied on studies that an average coffee drinker’s consuption of coffee increases with age while the average cola drinker’s consumption of cola declines, that both of the trends have remained stable for the past 40 years, and that the number of older adults will increase as the population ages over the next 20 years.Dose these support such a strong conclusion?





The passage provides the information that the number of older adults will increase significantly as the populaion ages over the next 20 years.The researcher dose not know this for a fact, since it has not yet happened; it is such a prediction.Yet, even if it happens, it still miss the assumption that the number of children who like to drink cola remain at a stale data.What if the number of children grows faster than that of olders?If it were so, then adding that information would weaken the argument.The missing premise must show the relationship between the two numbers, otherwise any information that challenges this assumption will weaken the argument.





The argument directly attributes the continuing increase of coffee and decrease of cola to both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years, which seems so unreasonable.This suggests that the trend has been fromed for a long time and will last forever.But notice that 40 years is such a short time campared to forever.What was it like before 40 years ago and will like after 40 years is still a mystery to us. Data from only 40 years provided not supports the argument but weaken it.So we have to add much more information to the argument.





In order to conclude that the average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with ages, from age 10 through age 60, the argument must logically assume that all the auldts at that age like to drink coffen more.This assumption would not likely be true if the drinkers’ ages are concentrated from age 10 to age 15, while the others choose to drink other drinks, such as tea. This posibility weakens the argument.It is the same with that of cola, the average number cannot present the phenomenon fairly.Because we do not know wheher all of the drinkers from age10 to age 60 like coffee more than cola.





Thus, the conclusion that we should consider transferring our investments from Cola Locato Early Bird Coffee is undermined by the reasons presented above. If we add more information about the relationship between the older drinkers’ number and the youngers’ and provide more details ahout the two trends to the argument which it relies, then it might seem reasonable to us.