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U.S. Prime Rate History 及贷款估计

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楼主
发表于 2011-4-2 12:06:43 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式
我们来算一下,贷款后大概要还多少钱?
用贷款读书的同学大多了解贷款一般是US Prime Rate + margin
margin有的学校是3%,有的学校是4%,但这个数值是固定。
而Prime Rate是浮动的,也就是说,用现在的Prime rate计算出来的还款数额不代表真正要还的款项。
所以我们来做个计算,下面是最近几十年的U.S Prime Rate History。
可以看到,现在的Prime Rate是最近数十年来最低的,我们不能期待它永远这么低。
虽然我们不能预测未来,但是我们可以用过去10年的平均数据做个简单的猜测,假设未来10年的平均U.S. Prime Rate和过去10年一样。
如果我们贷款10万美元,并10年后还清。
经过简单计算,过去10年的平均U.S. Prime Rate是6.6%,Margin是3%-4%的话,则大约国际学生利率是10%
所以,需要还款的数量大约是 10万*1.1^10=26万美元。
*实际情况会比这个少一些,因为会不断的还款使得本金变少。
*本人不是金融背景,有错误的地方还请多指正。


http://www.wsjprimerate.us/wall_street_journal_prime_rate_history.htm#current


History of The U.S. (Fed) Prime Rate from
1947 to The Present

- Click Here for The Current U.S. Prime Rate -
Date of Rate ChangeRate (%)
December 1, 19471.75
August 1, 19482
September 22, 19502.25
January 8, 19512.5
October 17, 19512.75
December 19, 19513
April 27, 19533.25
March 17, 19543
August 4, 19553.25
October 14, 19553.5
April 13, 19563.75
August 21, 19564
August 6, 19574.5
January 22, 19584
April 21, 19583.5
September 11, 19584
May 18, 19594.5
September 1, 19595
August 23, 19604.5
December 6, 19655
March 10, 19665.5
June 29, 19665.75
August 16, 19666
January 26, 19675.75
March 27, 19675.5
November 20, 19676
April 19, 19686.5
September 25, 19686.25
December 2, 19686.5
December 18, 19686.75
January 7, 19697
March 17, 19697.5
June 9, 19698.5
March 25, 19708
September 21, 19707.5
November 12, 19707.25
November 23, 19707
December 22, 19706.75
January 6, 19716.5
January 15, 19716.25
January 18, 19716
February 16, 19715.75
March 11, 19715.5
March 19, 19715.25
April 23, 19715.5
July 7, 19716
October 20, 19715.75
November 8, 19715.5
December 17, 19715.25
January 3, 19725
January 18, 19724.75
February 16, 19724.5
March 20, 19724.75
March 31, 19725
June 27, 19725.25
August 29, 19725.5
October 3, 19725.75
December 27, 19726
February 27, 19736.25
March 26, 19736.5
April 19, 19736.75
May 7, 19737
May 25, 19737.25
June 7, 19737.5
June 22, 19737.75
July 2, 19738
July 9, 19738.25
July 18, 19738.5
July 30, 19738.75
August 6, 19739
August 13, 19739.25
August 21, 19739.5
August 28, 19739.75
September 18, 197310
October 23, 19739.75
October 29, 19739.5
December 3, 19739.75
January 29, 19749.5
February 11, 19749.25
February 19, 19749
February 25, 19748.75
March 22, 19749
April 1, 19749.25
April 4, 19749.5
April 8, 19749.75
April 11, 197410
April 22, 197410.25
April 25, 197410.5
May 2, 197410.75
May 7, 197411
May 10, 197411.25
May 17, 197411.5
June 27, 197411.75
July 8, 197412
October 8, 197411.75
October 22, 197411.25
November 6, 197411
November 13, 197410.75
November 25, 197410.25
January 9, 197510.25
January 15, 197510.00
January 20, 19759.75
January 28, 19759.50
February 3, 19759.25
February 10, 19759.00
February 18, 19758.75
February 24, 19758.50
March 5, 19758.25
March 10, 19758.00
March 18, 19757.75
March 24, 19757.50
May 20, 19757.25
June 9, 19757.00
July 20, 19757.25
July 29, 19757.50
August 11, 19757.75
September 12, 19758.00
October 28, 19757.75
November 7, 19757.50
December 2, 19757.25
January 12, 19767.00
January 21, 19766.75
June 1, 19767.00
June 10, 19767.25
August 3, 19767.00
September 24, 19766.75
November 1, 19766.50
November 24, 19766.25
May 13, 19776.50
May 31, 19776.75
August 22, 19777.00
September 16, 19777.25
October 7, 19777.50
October 24, 19777.75
January 10, 19788.00
May 5, 19788.25
May 26, 19788.50
June 16, 19788.75
July 30, 19789.00
August 31, 19789.25
September 15, 19789.50
September 28, 19789.75
October 13, 197810.00
October 27, 197810.25
November 1, 197810.50
November 6, 197810.75
November 17, 197811.00
November 24, 197811.50
December 26, 197811.75
June 19, 197911.50
July 27, 197911.75
August 16, 197912.00
August 28, 197912.25
September 7, 197912.75
September 14, 197913.00
September 21, 197913.25
September 28, 197913.50
October 9, 197914.00
October 23, 197915.00
November 1, 197915.25
November 9, 197915.50
November 16, 197914.75
November 30, 197915.50
December 7, 197915.25
February 19, 198015.75
February 22, 198016.50
February 29, 198016.75
March 4, 198017.25
March 7, 198017.75
March 14, 198018.50
March 19, 198019.00
March 28, 198019.50
April 2, 198020.00
April 18, 198019.50
May 1, 198018.50
May 7, 198017.50
May 16, 198016.50
May 23, 198014.50
May 30, 198014.00
June 6, 198013.00
June 13, 198012.50
June 17, 198012.00
July 7, 198011.50
July 25, 198011.00
August 22, 198011.25
August 27, 198011.50
September 8, 198012.00
September 12, 198012.25
September 19, 198012.50
September 26, 198013.00
October 1, 198013.50
October 17, 198014.00
October 29, 198014.50
November 6, 198015.50
November 17, 198016.25
November 21, 198017.00
November 26, 198017.75
December 2, 198018.50
December 5, 198019.00
December 10, 198020.00
December 16, 198021.00
December 19, 198021.50
(U.S. Prime Rate record high)
(BACK TO TOP | CURRENT PRIME RATE)

January 2, 198120.50
January 9, 198120.00
February 3, 198119.50
February 23, 198119.00
March 10, 198118.00
March 17, 198117.50
April 2, 198117.00
April 24, 198117.50
April 30, 198118.00
May 4, 198119.00
May 11, 198119.50
May 19, 198120.00
May 22, 198120.50
June 3, 198120.00
July 8, 198120.50
September 15, 198119.50
October 5, 198119.00
October 13, 198118.00
November 3, 198117.50
November 9, 198117.00
November 16, 198116.50
November 24, 198116.00
December 3, 198115.75
February 8, 198216.50
February 18, 198217.00
February 23, 198216.50
July 20, 198216.00
July 29, 198215.50
August 2, 198215.00
August 16, 198214.50
August 18, 198214.00
September 3, 198213.50
October 7, 198213.00
October 13, 198212.00
November 22, 198211.50
January 11, 198311.00
February 21, 198310.50
August 8, 198311.00
March 19, 198411.50
April 5, 198412.00
May 8, 198412.50
June 26, 198413.00
September 27, 198412.75
October 16, 198412.50
October 24, 198412.00
November 8, 198411.75
November 28, 198411.25
December 19, 198410.75
January 15, 198510.50
May 20, 198510.00
June 18, 19859.50
March 7, 19869.00
April 21, 19868.50
July 11, 19868.00
August 26, 19867.50
April 1, 19877.75
May 1, 19878.00
May 15, 19878.25
September 4, 19878.75
October 7, 19879.25
October 22, 19879.00
November 5, 19878.75
February 2, 19888.50
May 11, 19889.00
July 14, 19889.50
August 11, 198810.00
November 28, 198810.50
February 10, 198911.00
February 24, 198911.50
June 5, 198911.00
July 31, 198910.50
January 8, 199010.00
January 2, 19919.5
February 4, 19919.00
May 1, 19918.50
September 13, 19918
November 6, 19917.5
December 23, 19916.5
July 2, 19926.00
March 24, 19946.25
April 19, 19946.75
May 18, 19947.25
August 16, 19947.75
November 15, 19948.5
February 1, 19959.00
July 7, 19958.75
December 20, 19958.50
January 31, 19968.25
March 27, 19978.50
September 30, 19988.25
October 16, 19988.00
November 18, 19987.75
July 1, 19998.00
August 25, 19998.25
November 17, 19998.50
February 3, 20008.75
March 22, 20009.00
May 17, 20009.50
January 4, 20019.00
February 1, 20018.50
March 21, 20018.00
April 19, 20017.50
May 16, 20017.00
June 28, 20016.75
August 22, 20016.50
September 18, 20016.00
October 3, 20015.50
November 7, 20015.00
December 12, 20014.75
November 7, 20024.25
June 27, 20034.00
July 1, 20044.25
August 11, 20044.50
September 22, 20044.75
November 10, 20045.00
December 14, 20045.25
February 2, 20055.50
March 22, 20055.75
May 3, 20056.00
June 30, 20056.25
August 9, 20056.50
September 20, 20056.75
November 1, 20057.00
December 13, 20057.25
January 31, 20067.50
March 28, 20067.75
May 10, 20068.00
June 29, 20068.25
Date of Rate ChangeRate (%)
September 18, 20077.75
October 31, 20077.50
December 11, 20077.25
January 22, 20086.50
January 30, 20086.00
March 18, 20085.25
April 30, 20085.00
October 8, 20084.50
October 29, 20084.00
December 16, 20083.25
(The Current U.S. Prime Rate)

March 15, 2011: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has voted
to keep the target range for the fed funds rate at 0% - 0.25%.
Therefore, the U.S. Prime Rate remains at 3.25%.
The next FOMC meeting and decision on short-term rates will be on April 27TH, 2011.
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沙发
发表于 2011-4-2 13:07:45 | 只看该作者
赞bigjoe!!很详细的知识贴
不过26万是高了点。如果按10%,头两年不还钱,毕业第一年开始还10年的话,总共还款大概是19.69万的样子。
我们来算一下,贷款后大概要还多少钱?
用贷款读书的同学大多了解贷款一般是US Prime Rate + margin
margin有的学校是3%,有的学校是4%,但这个数值是固定。
而Prime Rate是浮动的,也就是说,用现在的Prime rate计算出来的还款数额不代表真正要还的款项。
所以我们来做个计算,下面是最近几十年的U.S Prime Rate History。
可以看到,现在的Prime Rate是最近数十年来最低的,我们不能期待它永远这么低。
虽然我们不能预测未来,但是我们可以用过去10年的平均数据做个简单的猜测,假设未来10年的平均U.S. Prime Rate和过去10年一样。
如果我们贷款10万美元,并10年后还清。
经过简单计算,过去10年的平均U.S. Prime Rate是6.6%,Margin是3%-4%的话,则大约国际学生利率是10%
所以,需要还款的数量大约是 10万*1.1^10=26万美元。
*实际情况会比这个少一些,因为会不断的还款使得本金变少。
*本人不是金融背景,有错误的地方还请多指正。


http://www.wsjprimerate.us/wall_street_journal_prime_rate_history.htm#current


History of The U.S. (Fed) Prime Rate from
1947 to The Present

- Click Here for The Current U.S. Prime Rate -
Date of Rate ChangeRate (%)
December 1, 19471.75
August 1, 19482
September 22, 19502.25
January 8, 19512.5
October 17, 19512.75
December 19, 19513
April 27, 19533.25
March 17, 19543
August 4, 19553.25
October 14, 19553.5
April 13, 19563.75
August 21, 19564
August 6, 19574.5
January 22, 19584
April 21, 19583.5
September 11, 19584
May 18, 19594.5
September 1, 19595
August 23, 19604.5
December 6, 19655
March 10, 19665.5
June 29, 19665.75
August 16, 19666
January 26, 19675.75
March 27, 19675.5
November 20, 19676
April 19, 19686.5
September 25, 19686.25
December 2, 19686.5
December 18, 19686.75
January 7, 19697
March 17, 19697.5
June 9, 19698.5
March 25, 19708
September 21, 19707.5
November 12, 19707.25
November 23, 19707
December 22, 19706.75
January 6, 19716.5
January 15, 19716.25
January 18, 19716
February 16, 19715.75
March 11, 19715.5
March 19, 19715.25
April 23, 19715.5
July 7, 19716
October 20, 19715.75
November 8, 19715.5
December 17, 19715.25
January 3, 19725
January 18, 19724.75
February 16, 19724.5
March 20, 19724.75
March 31, 19725
June 27, 19725.25
August 29, 19725.5
October 3, 19725.75
December 27, 19726
February 27, 19736.25
March 26, 19736.5
April 19, 19736.75
May 7, 19737
May 25, 19737.25
June 7, 19737.5
June 22, 19737.75
July 2, 19738
July 9, 19738.25
July 18, 19738.5
July 30, 19738.75
August 6, 19739
August 13, 19739.25
August 21, 19739.5
August 28, 19739.75
September 18, 197310
October 23, 19739.75
October 29, 19739.5
December 3, 19739.75
January 29, 19749.5
February 11, 19749.25
February 19, 19749
February 25, 19748.75
March 22, 19749
April 1, 19749.25
April 4, 19749.5
April 8, 19749.75
April 11, 197410
April 22, 197410.25
April 25, 197410.5
May 2, 197410.75
May 7, 197411
May 10, 197411.25
May 17, 197411.5
June 27, 197411.75
July 8, 197412
October 8, 197411.75
October 22, 197411.25
November 6, 197411
November 13, 197410.75
November 25, 197410.25
January 9, 197510.25
January 15, 197510.00
January 20, 19759.75
January 28, 19759.50
February 3, 19759.25
February 10, 19759.00
February 18, 19758.75
February 24, 19758.50
March 5, 19758.25
March 10, 19758.00
March 18, 19757.75
March 24, 19757.50
May 20, 19757.25
June 9, 19757.00
July 20, 19757.25
July 29, 19757.50
August 11, 19757.75
September 12, 19758.00
October 28, 19757.75
November 7, 19757.50
December 2, 19757.25
January 12, 19767.00
January 21, 19766.75
June 1, 19767.00
June 10, 19767.25
August 3, 19767.00
September 24, 19766.75
November 1, 19766.50
November 24, 19766.25
May 13, 19776.50
May 31, 19776.75
August 22, 19777.00
September 16, 19777.25
October 7, 19777.50
October 24, 19777.75
January 10, 19788.00
May 5, 19788.25
May 26, 19788.50
June 16, 19788.75
July 30, 19789.00
August 31, 19789.25
September 15, 19789.50
September 28, 19789.75
October 13, 197810.00
October 27, 197810.25
November 1, 197810.50
November 6, 197810.75
November 17, 197811.00
November 24, 197811.50
December 26, 197811.75
June 19, 197911.50
July 27, 197911.75
August 16, 197912.00
August 28, 197912.25
September 7, 197912.75
September 14, 197913.00
September 21, 197913.25
September 28, 197913.50
October 9, 197914.00
October 23, 197915.00
November 1, 197915.25
November 9, 197915.50
November 16, 197914.75
November 30, 197915.50
December 7, 197915.25
February 19, 198015.75
February 22, 198016.50
February 29, 198016.75
March 4, 198017.25
March 7, 198017.75
March 14, 198018.50
March 19, 198019.00
March 28, 198019.50
April 2, 198020.00
April 18, 198019.50
May 1, 198018.50
May 7, 198017.50
May 16, 198016.50
May 23, 198014.50
May 30, 198014.00
June 6, 198013.00
June 13, 198012.50
June 17, 198012.00
July 7, 198011.50
July 25, 198011.00
August 22, 198011.25
August 27, 198011.50
September 8, 198012.00
September 12, 198012.25
September 19, 198012.50
September 26, 198013.00
October 1, 198013.50
October 17, 198014.00
October 29, 198014.50
November 6, 198015.50
November 17, 198016.25
November 21, 198017.00
November 26, 198017.75
December 2, 198018.50
December 5, 198019.00
December 10, 198020.00
December 16, 198021.00
December 19, 198021.50
(U.S. Prime Rate record high)
(BACK TO TOP | CURRENT PRIME RATE)

January 2, 198120.50
January 9, 198120.00
February 3, 198119.50
February 23, 198119.00
March 10, 198118.00
March 17, 198117.50
April 2, 198117.00
April 24, 198117.50
April 30, 198118.00
May 4, 198119.00
May 11, 198119.50
May 19, 198120.00
May 22, 198120.50
June 3, 198120.00
July 8, 198120.50
September 15, 198119.50
October 5, 198119.00
October 13, 198118.00
November 3, 198117.50
November 9, 198117.00
November 16, 198116.50
November 24, 198116.00
December 3, 198115.75
February 8, 198216.50
February 18, 198217.00
February 23, 198216.50
July 20, 198216.00
July 29, 198215.50
August 2, 198215.00
August 16, 198214.50
August 18, 198214.00
September 3, 198213.50
October 7, 198213.00
October 13, 198212.00
November 22, 198211.50
January 11, 198311.00
February 21, 198310.50
August 8, 198311.00
March 19, 198411.50
April 5, 198412.00
May 8, 198412.50
June 26, 198413.00
September 27, 198412.75
October 16, 198412.50
October 24, 198412.00
November 8, 198411.75
November 28, 198411.25
December 19, 198410.75
January 15, 198510.50
May 20, 198510.00
June 18, 19859.50
March 7, 19869.00
April 21, 19868.50
July 11, 19868.00
August 26, 19867.50
April 1, 19877.75
May 1, 19878.00
May 15, 19878.25
September 4, 19878.75
October 7, 19879.25
October 22, 19879.00
November 5, 19878.75
February 2, 19888.50
May 11, 19889.00
July 14, 19889.50
August 11, 198810.00
November 28, 198810.50
February 10, 198911.00
February 24, 198911.50
June 5, 198911.00
July 31, 198910.50
January 8, 199010.00
January 2, 19919.5
February 4, 19919.00
May 1, 19918.50
September 13, 19918
November 6, 19917.5
December 23, 19916.5
July 2, 19926.00
March 24, 19946.25
April 19, 19946.75
May 18, 19947.25
August 16, 19947.75
November 15, 19948.5
February 1, 19959.00
July 7, 19958.75
December 20, 19958.50
January 31, 19968.25
March 27, 19978.50
September 30, 19988.25
October 16, 19988.00
November 18, 19987.75
July 1, 19998.00
August 25, 19998.25
November 17, 19998.50
February 3, 20008.75
March 22, 20009.00
May 17, 20009.50
January 4, 20019.00
February 1, 20018.50
March 21, 20018.00
April 19, 20017.50
May 16, 20017.00
June 28, 20016.75
August 22, 20016.50
September 18, 20016.00
October 3, 20015.50
November 7, 20015.00
December 12, 20014.75
November 7, 20024.25
June 27, 20034.00
July 1, 20044.25
August 11, 20044.50
September 22, 20044.75
November 10, 20045.00
December 14, 20045.25
February 2, 20055.50
March 22, 20055.75
May 3, 20056.00
June 30, 20056.25
August 9, 20056.50
September 20, 20056.75
November 1, 20057.00
December 13, 20057.25
January 31, 20067.50
March 28, 20067.75
May 10, 20068.00
June 29, 20068.25
Date of Rate ChangeRate (%)
September 18, 20077.75
October 31, 20077.50
December 11, 20077.25
January 22, 20086.50
January 30, 20086.00
March 18, 20085.25
April 30, 20085.00
October 8, 20084.50
October 29, 20084.00
December 16, 20083.25
(The Current U.S. Prime Rate)

March 15, 2011: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has voted
to keep the target range for the fed funds rate at 0% - 0.25%.
Therefore, the U.S. Prime Rate remains at 3.25%.
The next FOMC meeting and decision on short-term rates will be on April 27TH, 2011.
-- by 会员 bigjoe (2011/4/2 12:06:43)

板凳
发表于 2011-4-2 13:22:09 | 只看该作者
大joe,怎么发这个帖子了, 不准备去给钱的学校了吗?
地板
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-2 13:41:01 | 只看该作者
赞bigjoe!!很详细的知识贴
不过26万是高了点。如果按10%,头两年不还钱,毕业第一年开始还10年的话,总共还款大概是19.69万的样子。
-- by 会员 breadwgy (2011/4/2 13:07:45)



弱问,这个19.69万是怎么算出来的@_@
5#
发表于 2011-4-2 14:14:25 | 只看该作者
你还的时候不是一次还清,要用discount cash flow吧
6#
发表于 2011-4-2 14:51:43 | 只看该作者
excel拉出来的。。。
赞bigjoe!!很详细的知识贴
不过26万是高了点。如果按10%,头两年不还钱,毕业第一年开始还10年的话,总共还款大概是19.69万的样子。
-- by 会员 breadwgy (2011/4/2 13:07:45)




弱问,这个19.69万是怎么算出来的@_@
-- by 会员 bigjoe (2011/4/2 13:41:01)

7#
发表于 2011-4-3 11:21:23 | 只看该作者
我用金融计算器算了一下。
算这10W是分两年贷的,第一年贷5W,第二年贷5W,利息算10%,毕业的时候的本利加是11万5500。
还10年, 于是 : N=10, I/Y=10, PV=115500, CPT->MT=-18,797.09 这个数是每年需要还的,总的就是×10=18W多
如果按月还:N=10*12, I/Y=10/12, CPT->MT= -1,526.34 每月还这个金额,总还款金额是×10×12= 183,160.92 如果上学的时候不算利息的话少点。
8#
发表于 2011-4-5 11:00:33 | 只看该作者
我用金融计算器算了一下。
算这10W是分两年贷的,第一年贷5W,第二年贷5W,利息算10%,毕业的时候的本利加是11万5500。
还10年, 于是 : N=10, I/Y=10, PV=115500, CPT->MT=-18,797.09 这个数是每年需要还的,总的就是×10=18W多
如果按月还:N=10*12, I/Y=10/12, CPT->MT= -1,526.34 每月还这个金额,总还款金额是×10×12= 183,160.92 如果上学的时候不算利息的话少点。
-- by 会员 Vandy (2011/4/3 11:21:23)



每月还款1500美元,而且还是税后,等于税前收入1万多RMB.......建议各位同学还是量力而为吧,这东西等于多背一套房贷在身上。

MBA是一种职业教育,算的就是投资回报率。这个学历基本只在毕业后5年内比较有用,往后就慢慢淡化要靠个人真正本事了,至于network什么的都是虚的,不是M7的人一样认识超多M7同学,关系还特好。

如果5年内不能回本,那就别去了,或者选择奖学金高一些的学校去。
9#
发表于 2011-4-5 11:05:37 | 只看该作者
19.69万 基本正好是全美一栋single-family house的中位数价格。
10#
发表于 2011-4-5 13:45:10 | 只看该作者
Margin rate might not be as high as 3%, but it works as a conservative estimator in your loan repayment calculation.
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