2001/10 23 Some statisticians claim that the surest way to increase the overall correctness of the total set of one's belief is: never change that set, except by rejecting a belief when given adequate evidence againest it. However, if this were the only rule one followed, then whenever one were presented with any kind of evidence, one would have to either reject some of one's beliefs or else leave one's beliefs unchanged. But then, over time, one could only have fewer and fewer beliefs. Since we need many beliefs in order to survive, the statisticians' claim must be mistaken.
The argument is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that it (A) presumes, without providing any justification, that the surest way of increasing the overall correctness of the total set of one's beliefs must not hinder one's ability to survice.
(B) neglects the possiblitu that even while following the statisticians' rule, one might also accept new beliefs when presented with some kinds of evidence.
(C) overlooks the possibility that some large sets of beliefs are more correct overall than are some small sets of beliefs.
(D) takes for granted that one should accept some beliefs related to survival even when given adequate evidence againest them
(E) takes for granted that the beliefs we need in order to have many beliefs must all be correct beliefs.
After reading the passage and all the choices, C,D,E can all be eliminated as they either have nothing to do with the passage or logic, or they contain argument that is beyond the passage.
Then it leaves us with A and B. The reason I choose A is that A is 100% correct, while B states something that is not stated in the passage.
In the passage, the logic is that the surest way will lead to fewer and few beliefs-->hard to survive -->mistaken. As you can see from the first sentence, the purpose of the surest way is to increase correctness of beliefs, and ability to survive is not mentioned. So there is a gap and the author apparently made an assumption that survival is equally important in determining whether the surest way is right or not. Answer A casts doubt on the assumption.
The problem of choice B is that obtaining new beliefs is not discussed in the passage and we have no way to prove that the person can obtain new beliefs if he or she follows the rule.
BTW, I wonder whether it is all right for me to answer questions in English or not. Please let me know.
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发表于 2003-5-23 09:48:00
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