请牛版大帮忙改一篇AA，AA042，谢谢先~

Yunemma

呜呜不会写。。。一个小时才挤出来这么一点。。。。。。。。。泪奔

The following appeared in the opinion section of a national newsmagazine.

“To reverse the deterioration of the postal service, the government should raise the price of postage stamps. This solution will no doubt prove effective, since the price increase will generate larger revenues and will also reduce the volume of mail, thereby eliminating the strain on the existing system and contributing to improved morale.”

Discuss how well reasoned... etc.



In this argument the author reaches the conclusion that the government should raise the price of postage stamps so that the strain on the existing system will be eliminated and the morale improved. Therefore, this solution will help to reverse the deterioration of the postal service. At first glance, the recommendation appears to be somewhat convincing, but further consideration about the reasoning tells us not only that the price increase may not always lead to larger revenues, instead causing some unfavorable side-effects, but also that elimination of strain on the existing system and improved morale doesn’t necessarily mean that the deterioration of the postal service will be reversed accordingly.



First, it is well-known that the price increase helps to improve revenues only under special market situation, and the postal service is probably not one of them. Studies by economists tell us that the price increase of a certain product usually have negative effect on consumers’ demand. Since revenues equal the product of price and sales volume, whether price increase will have positive or negative effect on the revenues remains uncertain, given the fact that price increases and the sales volume decreases at the same time. Therefore, only if the author provides evidence to prove that for post service the effect on revenues is determined on a larger scale by the price increase rather than sales volume decrease, can the argument be well substantiated. Furthermore, the price increase can even induce some side-effects. For instance, consumers may have negative image of the postal service since its quality doesn’t come first and switch to other express company. In this sense, the author cannot assume that the solution will bring about larger revenues, which helps to reverse the deterioration of postal service. And negative effects hinders on the way.



Second, the reduction of volume of mail doesn’t always result in the desired effects, such as eliminated strain on the existing system and improved morale. Once the volume of mail will reduce due to the price increase in general, it maybe assumed that the volume of mail in suburban areas or countryside will also decrease. Hence, it will be even more expensive to maintain the postal service there because costs of both staffs and devices don’t reduce at the same level. The situation will be even worse if it is also not possible to cut cost in urban area if the demand doesn’t decline that much. In this way, reduced volume of mail is possibly not able to eliminate strain on the existing system, but cause cost waste as well as the ineffective use of staffs and devices. At the same time, the morale will not be improved since no additional services are provided.



Third, the logic of the reasoning is also questionable because eliminated strain on the existing system and the improved morale don’t necessarily reverse the deterioration of the postal service. The current deterioration may result from a host of other factors, For example, delays in deliveries, the inconvenience to go to post office or the unavailability to reach more suburban area. As a result, the author needs to provide additional argument to justify the argument by ruling out other possibilities.



In conclusion, due to its market situation, the postal service may not be able to have larger revenues by increasing the price. Meanwhile, the decreased volume of mail is likely to reduce the revenue, while the cost cannot be cut dramatically. In addition, the author needs to provide further evidence to beef up the reasoning.