Marcom: Is China "Yesterday's News"?

sushi

All, this is what I read from BWonline forum, do you agree?

I thought the writer is some Indian, given his/her username: ironlungml, bug  I could be wrong.

Here it goes:
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Personally I think that China is yesterday's news.  A lot of money has been dumped into that country already.  Look up Chinese banks and their bad debt (that they actually report), and you'll see that they may be in trouble in the future.  lus, a large part of  the Chinese economy is still made up of large, inefficient, government owned companies.  The SARS outbreak is demonstrating how their government is not so transparent.  The Economist had an article on how China's coal reserves are being taxed, and China may soon have to import coal.  Do you believe the Chinese government's growth numbers?  I don't.  How long do you think they'll be able to peg the exhange rate with the dollar?  I think there is a herd mentality when it comes to investing in China.  Everyone is seduced by $7500 a year engineers and the new buildings in Shanghai.

I think that India is a much better emerging economy to invest in.  Their court system is better, they are used to capitalism, and their financial system is better.  lus they are a democracy.  I realize that there is a lot of investment going on in India already, but I feel it's more thoughtful.  It's easier to value risks in India.

The Economist also had a recent article on Korea.  South Korea has done some impressive things with their economy as well.

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attic

I have to say that some of opinions in the article are unfortunately right, which should be our Chinese especially those policy maker's alert.

First and for most, India do has its advantage over China, for example, the language.

Second, Indian is at least as smart as our Chinese, if not more. Their average GMAT score is averagely 20 points higher than our Chinese (from a schools stats, not confirmed, but I do know several GMAT 800 Indian while I do not know even one Chinese). In additional, there more Indian programmers, software engineers, and IT consultants not only in San Jose, but also world wide. And more and more international investors invest in Hi-tech industries in India than in China.

However, I doubt the allegation that China is yesterday, and it is even a BS to say India will in place of China to become a "tomorrow", for the following reasons.

First of all, history has demonstrated that India although a great nation, never dominated the world for a long time, while China did.

Second, Indian, although smart, are not as diligent as our Chinese, and diligence is one of crucial factors to become success.

Third, India has at least the same serious population problems as China, if not worse.   

Fourth, while China all nation is striving for better life, I did not see the same in India except for some hi-techers. And high-tech along, although is a very decisive factor, is not the only factor influencing a country's evolvement.

Finally, as far as I know, India has much, much more bureaucratic government than China has, which will no doubt block the way to their development.

All in all, I believe that our country - China, our People - Chinese will have a brighter future, and I myself, and I think every conscientious Chinese will make every effort for it.

Attic

funnytiger

首先我想讲讲这篇文章的来源， 现在美国的B-school对中国的兴趣已经到了当年谈internet的高度了， 只要是介绍中国经济形式和机会的seminar都是座无虚席， 尤其外国人比例非常的高。 这也是为什么说大家的essay一定要多谈中国， 少提其他的原因。
不要说他， 我认识的很多印度人都不服， 印度在很多领域， 比如说软件， 已经做到了把老美征服的地步了， 可是b-school却没有pay attention. 尤其是最top的b-school特别明显， 上课一讲亚洲， 首提中国
至於他的观点， 我就不说什么了， 毛病是谁都有的， 中国有自己特色的毛病， 没人知道怎么治， 不独裁就能解决吗， 没人有这个把握。 花开花落， 中国今天兴旺， 就会有一天衰落， 有人说五年之后， 有人说十年， 也有人说35年， 中国一定会有大调整。 关键是看衰弱之后有没有人带头复兴， 说不定这个坛子里的人将来就是中国的领袖呢

andy2215

Sushi,

Thanks for bringing us this interesting topic - China vs. India.

1.  First of all, in a considerable time frame, the global money flow would always follow the "people's greed" other than any other political consideration.  Do agree that Funnytiger's observation - China has become a new "golden rush" place for some western people now - I don't deny there might be some emotion reason, down to the bottom, I would like to believe it is because of money's speaking.

2.  The highly developed Chinese economy has some serious problem - actually, the problems mentioned by the author, unfortunately, are mostly ture in current China.   ublic spending and foreign investment have covered a lot of problems in our bank-money system - to me...that would be next bottle neck - and we might need to face this problem seriously much much more earlier than we would like to (one of the reason, during this SARs crisis, the central government's shanghai-pretection-policy again proved the shanghai's importance - as the de-factor financial center.  

3.  India's problems lies in its unbalanced development/society.  The top of india society has gone too far from the bottom.  As for as its technology - they have only a few of industry (like S/W) being in the advanced stage...but the main industry force is way under average.  Actually, it might be a very good mirror for our development - do notice that the difference between rich and poor have increased much deeply than before.  Shall it run an alarm for us?

Joy,
Andy

stanhope

Do agree! can't more!
some additional coments:
though the temporary, partial prosperity or seemingly rapid developmenmt in certain indutries in Indian may just be overestimation of those indian scholars, or myopia of some economists, we have to admit that, though many people believe that the IT indsutry in Indian may only be an exception, its significance cant not be underestimated. Man is approaching the 3rd great opportunity in history ever. If china cant seize this IT boom to gain edge, we will never have another  chance!

the SW industry may be persuasive , much more than people may imagine, to inlfuence the whole conomy and other industries.

Marx has said the tragedy of Indina is that it has no history, which, of u claim it to have, may just be a combination of real history and myths. what a poor nation! A nation that has ever, never conquer the world but has been surreenderreed for so many times by different nations or  different races. Like a  b*tch ........... ( sorry)

the comon charcterristeics of india is that people lack initiative, cretivity and they may be lasy as compared with chinese counterparts.