V4 Now is the perfect time to buy a house in our city. Over the past five years, average home prices in our region have nearly doubled. But average stock prices in the national stock market have actually declined over the same period. So homeowners have seen an increase in value for their housing investment during the last five years that far exceeds what they could have made by investing in the stock market. Our city’s resident can surely achieve a similar profit over the next five years. Furthermore, if residents invest in a home, they can enjoy the use of the home while its value increases, whereas money invested in stocks would not contribute to their quality of life in the same way that owning a home would. Therefore, all the residents of our city should invest their money in a home. (感谢XYXB提供,XDF那本白皮书我翻烂了就是没注意过这题) 或者求思路。这里我只能想到时间上的错误。还有其他的嘛? -- by 会员 MissZiona (2009/11/2 12:04:43)
我是从这么几点来攻击的 1、时间错误 过去跌不一定未来跌 过去长不一定未来长 2、因果错误 过去5年房市涨了,股票跌了 不能直接推出 "投资房产赚的就比投资股票赚的多" 这个叫 CAUSAL OVERSIMPLIFICATION 你可以举例说有人投资股票做空,跌了也是赚的 3、ALL THINGS ARE EQUAL 就算你未来5年房市还是涨,就算你过去5年在房市赚了钱,不代表你未来5年能从房市里赚钱SIMILAR MONEY,你可以这样举例:房价未来是涨了,但是可能涨幅还没有银行利率高,钱是有时间价值的,如果你的钱投资回报率没有超过银行利率就是亏了(这条有点无赖,但是我觉得还是可以写) |