43. The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.“There is a common misconception that university hospitals are better than community or private hospitals. This notion is unfounded, however: the university hospitals in our region employ 15 percent fewer doctors, have a 20 percent lower success rate in treating patients, make far less overall profit, and pay their medical staff considerably less than do private hospitals. Furthermore, many doctors at university hospitals typically divide their time among teaching, conducting research, and treating patients. From this it seems clear that the quality of care at university hospitals is lower than that at other kinds of hospitals.” 报纸的健康板块上的文章：
有一种普遍的错误观念认为大学医院比社区或私人医院更好。这个想法是无根据的，我们地区的大学医院较之私人医院，少雇15%的医生，对患者的治愈率要低20%，总体利润要小得多，给一户员工的待遇比私人医院低很多。而且，很多大学医院的医生将他们的时间分为教学，指导研究和看病几部分。从此可明显看出大学医院的服务质量比其他医院低。 1， 从一个医院的情况就推广到整个太草率 2， 治愈率低可能是因为接受的患者得的病都比较罕见等原因造成的 3， 工资低，总体利润低，时间分配给教学都不能一定说明质量差。可能其他福利好，接受的病人少，教学研究有助于进步
“Our total sales have increased this year by 20 percent since we added a pharmacy section to our grocery store. Clearly, the customer’s main concern is the convenience afforded by one-stop shopping. The surest way to increase our profits over the next couple of years, therefore, is to add a clothing department along with an automotive supplies and repair shop. We should also plan to continue adding new departments and services, such as a restaurant and a garden shop, in subsequent years. Being the only store in the area that offers such a range of services will give us a competitive advantage over other local stores.” Megamart杂货店的管理层的商务计划：
由于我们在杂货店内加了药剂部分，今年我们的总体销售额增加了20%。显然，顾客主要关注的是一次性购物的便利性。在今后两年内提高我们的利润的最佳方法是增加一个成衣部门和一个汽车配件和维修商店。我们同时也应该在最后的几年中继续增加新的部门和服务，比如餐馆，园艺商店。成为本地唯一的提供如此广泛服务的商店将给我们带来超越其他商店的竞争优势。 1. 总体销售额增加20%利润不一定也会相应增加 2. 销售额的增加不一定是由于增加了这个部门造成的 3. 以后是否还会有如此效果不一定。因为可能已经有企业提供更专业更优质的商品和服务。
1. 没有建立因果。sequence不能证明因果。不知道收入来自哪个section. 很可能是有其他的原因：很可能是pharmacy没有利润。利润来自其他的部分。比如食品等，质量提高，或者经济情况好，人们有更多的demand。 2. 销售额增加不一定是profit增加。 3. 错误类比：就算加入了pharmacy引起了收入提高，也不能说增加的clothing和其他也会引起收入。很可能人们不是因为convenience，而是对medicine的需要。很可能其他的，人们更愿意到special shops。
97. The following appeared as part of an article in a computer magazine. “A year ago Apex Manufacturing bought its managers computers for their homes and paid for telephone connections so that the managers could access Apex computers and data files from home after normal business hours. Since last year, productivity at Apex has increased by 15 percent. Other companies can learn from the success at Apex: given home computers and access to company resources, employees will work additional hours at home and thereby increase company profits.”电脑杂志的文章：
一年前Apex制造公司给它的经理们在家买了电脑，并支付电话费，这样他们就可以在工作时间以外从家里连接到Apex的电脑和数据文件。从去年开始，Apex的生产能力增长了15%。其他公司可以借鉴Apex的成功，提供家用电脑和到公司资源的链接，雇员会在家里加班并提高公司利润。
92. The following is taken from an editorial in a local newspaper. “Over the past decade, the price per pound of citrus fruit has increased substantially. Eleven years ago, Megamart charged 5 cents apiece for lemons, but today it commonly charges over 30 cents apiece. In only one of these last eleven years was the weather unfavorable for growing citrus crops. Evidently, then, citrus growers have been responsible for the excessive increase in the price of citrus fruit, and strict pricing regulations are needed to prevent them from continuing to inflate prices.”当地报纸的社论：
过去的10年里，桔类水果的价格实际上上升了。11年前，Megamart每个柠檬要价5分，现在一般要价为30分一个。过去11年只有一年不适合桔类水果生长。显然，柑桔种植者应该对桔类水果价格过度上涨负责。为防止他们继续哄抬价格规范价格规定很有必要。1， 小范围推大范围。 2， 忽略他因，是否只有一种因素导致价格上升——不适合生长。。。还有，比如环境保护，加工价格上升，人力成本上升，或者单纯的物价上涨。。。monetary inflation, increased distribution and labor costs, or alterations in supply and demand conditions
1， 柠檬缺乏代表性，或者说，柠檬有其特殊性，譬如柠檬都是进口的，比较贵； 2， 天气好不一定代表物价要低，因为种植柑橘的农民已经动用了可用的资源了，产量无法再多了； 3， 是否物价高就是农民肆意抬高的缘故，可能是dealers在其中的作用； 4， 政府是否要介入，虽然价格变贵了，但是targeted customers没有变化，对整个国民经济影响不大
125. The following appeared as part of the business plan of the Capital Idea investment firm. “Across town in the Park Hill district, the Thespian Theater, Pizzazz Pizza, and the Niblick Golf Club have all had business increases within the past two years. Capital Idea should therefore invest in the Roxy Playhouse, the Slice-o’-Pizza, and the Divot Golf Club, three new businesses in the Irongate district. As a condition, we should require them to participate in a special program: Any customer who patronizes two of the businesses will receive a substantial discount at the third. By motivating customers to patronize all three, we will thus contribute to the profitability of each and maximize our return.” Capital Idea投资公司的商业计划：
在ParkHill区的Thespian剧院，Pizzazz比萨，Niblick高尔夫俱乐部在过去2年都有业务增长。因此Capital Idea应该投资Poxy剧场，Slic－o比萨和Divot高尔夫俱乐部这3家新的Irongate区的企业。为使他们达到条件，我们应该要求他们参加特殊的项目：任何顾客在其中两家消费将在第三家得到折扣。通过刺激顾客在所有3家店消费，我们将增进每一家的利润，从而使我们的回报最大化。 1， The author commits a fallcy of false analogy. 2， Therefore the proposal of investment in the Irongate district is groundless. No investment should be made until other factors have been considered and the benefit-cost analysis has been made. 3， The programme suggested by the author is reckless or even ridiculous. The possible result can be the opposite of the author's imagination because the consumers have interest of only one or two of the three stores.
1， The business increases occured in the past two years. No one can guarantee the future profit. 2， The three new companies are not necessarily analogous to those profitable ones. 3， The condition that is required is absurd. There is no causal relatioship between the condition and the collective profit.
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发表于 2009-4-8 20:34:00
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