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看谁猜得准? 8月几号会换池子?

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31#
发表于 2008-8-8 00:26:00 | 只看该作者

Using the template I created to calculate my ex GF's period (haha):

Days per K

Last Change

Projection

Earliest in Oct

Latest in Oct

21

07-Aug-08

28-Aug-08

18-Sep-08

05-Oct-08

30

07-Aug-08

06-Sep-08

27-Sep-08

14-Oct-08

30

07-Aug-08

06-Sep-08

27-Sep-08

14-Oct-08

32

07-Aug-08

08-Sep-08

29-Sep-08

16-Oct-08

28

07-Aug-08

04-Sep-08

25-Sep-08

12-Oct-08

32

07-Aug-08

08-Sep-08

29-Sep-08

16-Oct-08

32

07-Aug-08

08-Sep-08

29-Sep-08

16-Oct-08

29

07-Aug-08

05-Sep-08

26-Sep-08

13-Oct-08

33

07-Aug-08

09-Sep-08

30-Sep-08

17-Oct-08

29

07-Aug-08

05-Sep-08

26-Sep-08

13-Oct-08

30

07-Aug-08

06-Sep-08

27-Sep-08

14-Oct-08

38

07-Aug-08

14-Sep-08

05-Oct-08

22-Oct-08

31

07-Aug-08

07-Sep-08

28-Sep-08

15-Oct-08

29

07-Aug-08

05-Sep-08

26-Sep-08

13-Oct-08

30

07-Aug-08

06-Sep-08

27-Sep-08

14-Oct-08

30

07-Aug-08

06-Sep-08

27-Sep-08

14-Oct-08

38

07-Aug-08

14-Sep-08

05-Oct-08

22-Oct-08

38

07-Aug-08

14-Sep-08

05-Oct-08

22-Oct-08

 

 

Most probable

27-Sep-08

14-Oct-08

I would select dates between (not include) 14-Sep-08 and 27-Sep-08, and try to stay in the middle.

Again, my two cents.

Good luck.

32#
发表于 2008-8-8 01:28:00 | 只看该作者
以下是引用cestmoilance在2008-8-7 23:59:00的发言:

sungnr:

I am afraid I am not able to do so.

As ETS is a profit taking business entity, it must at least have annual schedule about database change. Under the assumption they have annual plan rather than, say, five years, unless I have at least two years data to study the pattern, any results would be unreliable.

If you have enough data, say you tracked when they change the database for more than two years. One logical method would be perform the descriptive statistics on the number of days per KFC. Find out the median, mode, range, maximum, and minimum. And you can use histogram to study the frequence for each sample points. Also, you can compare data sets between two years.

In CFA, they call datamining a way to 'Beat the data into submission'. God I love this saying....

For the data set given above, both 2007 and the first 8 months of 2008,

Days per KFC

 

 

 

 

Mean

31.11111

Standard Error

0.956194

Median

30

Mode

30

Standard Deviation

4.056786

Sample Variance

16.45752

Kurtosis

1.767511

Skewness

-0.10832

Range

17

Minimum

21

Maximum

38

Sum

560

Count

18

Confidence Level(95.0%)

2.017392

Days

Frequency

Cumulative %

0 - 20

0

0.00%

21 - 25

1

5.56%

26 - 30

9

55.56%

31 - 35

5

83.33%

36 - 40

3

100.00%

> 40

0

100.00%

You figure out the rest......

oh my god.........isnt it EVIEWS.............Orz...
33#
 楼主| 发表于 2008-8-8 01:32:00 | 只看该作者
大家看看六楼cestmoilance猜的多有水平. 要是cestmoilance能猜猜后面几个月的换池水的大概时间就好了.
34#
 楼主| 发表于 2008-8-8 01:38:00 | 只看该作者
看来这个贴没找死, 引出了一为像cestmoilance这样的大NN. 比吃KFC还高兴呢.
35#
发表于 2008-8-8 06:04:00 | 只看该作者
niu
36#
发表于 2008-8-8 07:29:00 | 只看该作者
提示: 该帖被管理员或版主屏蔽
37#
发表于 2008-8-8 11:05:00 | 只看该作者
以下是引用cestmoilance在2008-8-8 0:26:00的发言:

Using the template I created to calculate my ex GF's period (haha):


hahahaha
38#
发表于 2008-8-8 16:06:00 | 只看该作者
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39#
发表于 2008-8-8 17:25:00 | 只看该作者

用的哪个软件?

40#
发表于 2008-8-8 20:33:00 | 只看该作者
用的哪个软件?

.....EXCEL....2003版to be exact.
当然你想用matlab或者SAS也可以, 但是有一种说法叫杀鸡用牛刀.
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