Is it possible to decrease inflation without causing a reces- sion and its concomitant increase line in unemployment? The orthodox (5) answer is “no.” whether they support the “inertia” theory of inflation (that today’s inflation rate is caused by yesterday’s infla- tion, the state of the economic (10) cycle, and external influences such as import prices) or the “rational expectations” theory (that inflation is caused by workers’ and employers’ expec- (15) tations, coupled with a lack of credible monetary and fiscal policies), most economists agree that tight monetary and fiscal policies, which cause (20) recessions, are necessary to decelerate inflation. They point out that in the 1980’s, many European countries and the United States conquered high (25) (by these countries’ standards) inflation, but only by applying tight monetary and fiscal policies that sharply increased unemployment. Nevertheless, some govern- (30) ments’ policymakers insist that direct controls on wages and prices, without tight monetary and fiscal policies, can succeed in decreasing inflation. Unfortu- (35) nately, because this approach fails to deal with the underlying causes of inflation, wage and price controls eventually col- lapse, the hitherto-repressed (40) inflation resurfaces, and in the meantime, though the policy- makers succeed in avoiding a recession, a frozen structure of relative prices imposes distor- (45) tions that do damage to the economy’s prospects for long- term growth.
有个地方不明白。这篇文章开头的设问句后面说了 orthodox的观点(应该就是老观点把?)但是文章后来内容也都是在说不可能既抑制通货膨胀又不负面影响经济和就业率,那不是和老观点一致了么?? |