请教XDF蓝皮上册11题--一道逻辑题， 谢谢

elinaqu

Partly because of bad weather, but also partly because some major pepper growers have switched to high-priced cocoa, world production of pepper has been running well below worldwide sales for three years. Pepper is consequently in relatively short supply. The price of pepper has soared in response: it now equals that of cocoa.

Some observers have concluded that the rise in the price of pepper means that the switch by some growers from pepper to cocoa left those growers no better off than if none of them had switched; this conclusion, however, is unwarranted because it can be inferered to be likely that我对问题的理解是一些人认为胡椒价格的上升意味着胡椒种植者转种可可的这种转变使这些种植者经济状况不如所有人都不转种（可可）的状况。这种结论是没有根据的因为下边那一种可能成立 

A, those growers could not have foreseen how high the price of pepper would go 种植者不能预测胡椒的价格会有多高

B, the initial cost involved in switched from pepper to cocoa is substantial

C. supplies of pepper would not be as low as they are if those growers had not switched crops.如果那些种植者没有转种可可，胡椒的供应不会这么低

D. cocoa crops are as susceptible to being reduced by bad weather as are pepper crops

E, as more growers turn to growing cocoa, cocoa supplies will increase and the price of cocoa will fall precipitously 

答案是C,我选的是A,似乎有那么一点似懂非懂，但是有点模糊，还是不懂为什么选C,不选A,

请高人指教

elinaqu

会不会是A推B,  B否不一定能推A, 那这题考察的是B否推A的条件

所以选项中应该有比较， 而A则可以用无关词来排除，请教啊

frances77

结论因果倒置了阿，c正好说明了这一点

mbamom

造成pepper供给减少，价格升高有两个原因，1是bad weather, 2是grower switch, 如果按some observers的结论there is no grower switch, pepper的供给也会减少，价格也会升高因为还有bad weather在起作用，但减少和升高的程度会比两原因同作用时要小，就是c说的"supplies of pepper would not be as low as they are"， 所以growers who switched to cocoa can be better off, 这样就否了observers的说法

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-2-24 4:14:50编辑过]

elinaqu

非常谢谢mbamom，frances77