大全-Ⅲ-20 不明白

woaicc

我觉得是这样:

C 中提到的predictive Strategy is good 但在文章中并没有提到这个Strategy;这个词并没有形成从前提推到结论的关连.也就是说,与文章结论并无联系.

D 中,提到的是Correctio prediction;这个词恰恰在文中有涉及到. 好比A-B;如果要A--C,那么B的这个也要出现.

一点想法.不知道对不对.

buda

我也不太明白这道题，以下是我的一些看法

首先从题干 Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?  这道题应该是加强题

题目分析：1.When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken

                 predic: 一个结果----〉一个行为  

               2.they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs.  

                  这个行为发生(effective action) ，并且结果产生 -----〉 correct prediction

               3. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.

                但是，经常  一个结果-----〉好几个行为

到这里我就有一个问题了，这道题作为加强题，他要加强谁呢？从题目正文上看这是一个典型的归纳题 

     结论是：一个结果-----〉好几个行为 要加强他

       D说Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.  不能把（对的行为和对的预测）同 （错的行为和错的预测）区分开，也就是说有可能把对的误认为错的。

       根据文章分析的1，只有一一对应预测才是正确的，但有可能出现错误的预测但是实际effective action ，但是这个action人们会认为是ineffective的。这就说明结果3有可能成立。

   我之前也是选C，Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result of using that strategy through several trials.

     目前不确定为什么不选，predictive strategy 是指action 还是prediction呢。

       

              

rockmax

说的好,

到这里我就有一个问题了，这道题作为加强题，他要加强谁呢？从题目正文上看这是一个典型的归纳题 
     结论是：一个结果-----〉好几个行为 要加强他

我之前也是选C，Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result of using that strategy through several trials.
            

     目前不确定为什么不选，predictive strategy 是指action 还是prediction呢。

我觉得predictive strategy  是action, 因为后面谈到result of using that strategy,    action-->result

而题目中是 the result admits of more than one interpretation.既一个结果, 有多个解释.

不选C的原因是, C 中是一个action-- 多个结果.

但是D还是想不通, 真的很难.
                

一点愚见, 请NN, 指点!!!

     目前不确定为什么不选，predictive strategy 是指action 还是prediction呢。

我觉得predictive strategy  是action, 因为后面谈到result of using that strategy,    action-->result

而题目中是 the result admits of more than one interpretation.既一个结果, 有多个解释.

不选C的原因是, C 中是一个action-- 多个结果.

但是D还是想不通, 真的很难.
        

一点愚见, 请NN, 指点!!!

jiangmingjia

某些人认为A是B的必要条件，然而事实是有多种原因可以导致B（A不是必要条件），因此，分析B究竟是否A导致的是不可能的。

twingkey

我认为结论是prediction 不一定correct，最后一句话其实没说全。
前面说action和result发生了，prediction就correct。结尾说 it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation. （是个fact）后面就要说：所以，prediction不一定correct。
所以D选项说Distinguishing a correct prediction from an incorrect prediction is often impossible（区分不出correct还是incorrect）。就进一步支持了prediction不一定正确。

猪王山

claim不同意“人们相信当采取行动而且得到结果就证明预料的是对的 ”，因此support 题目就是weaken引号里的论点。假如说，人们区分正确与错误的预料很难，因此人们believe的prediction也可能是错的；有效和无效的action也难以区分，因此原本可能无效的action（无效就是指无法得到预期result的action）也会被人当成有效的。这样就weaken了“人们相信。。。是对的”

zxppx

大全-Ⅲ-20.  When people predict that
certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they
believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action
is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear
that the result admits of more than one interpretation.

   Which of the following, if true, best
supports the claims above?

   (A) Judging the
success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.

   (B) Judging
which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other
actions that have been successful in similar past situations.

   (C) Learning whether a certain
predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy
through several trials.

   (D) Distinguishing a correct
prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective
action is often impossible.（D）

   (E) Making a
successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that
prediction.

-- by 会员 allen0018 (2006/9/6 10:20:00)

20.When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. 说明前面的观点是错误的On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
跟which action to take无关，这里说的是which action contributes to the result

(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
没有提到through several trials

(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
“取非”,如果可以区分（错误的预测和无效的行为）和（正确的预测和有效的行为）那么就不需要文中的结论了（对于一个结果有多个解释），因为只要有前面提到的一个a certain action就可以了（D）

(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.
跟“背景”无关

推荐看这个网页，里面有一个800分的大牛http://www.beatthegmat.com/really-good-one-t30666.html?cityevent=

zxppx

allen0018 发表于 2006-9-6 10:20
    大全-Ⅲ-20.  When people predict thatcertain result will not take place ...

推荐看这个网站：http://www.beatthegmat.com/people-s-prediction-t51038.html
In abstract, the argument can be looked at like this.

The first sentence: "When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs."

if action X is not taken, then result Y will not follow. People think that the prediction (no Y) is correct when action X is taken and the result (Y) follows.

In other words, people think that the statement "No X, then No Y" is verified when both X and Y occur. The author's point is that Y's occurence can be due to things other than X (thier simulatenous occurence establishes a mere correlation but not necessarily a causal relationship).

Choices B and C are both outside the scope.

Choice B discusses the SELECTION of action--this is outside the scope as the argument is not at all about WHICH action to take.

Choice C discusses the GOODNESS of a predictive strategy--this is really outside the scope as the argument is not about good vs bad strategies.

If choice D is true--if it is impossible to tell apart a correct prediction/effective action from an incorrect prediction/ineffective action, then it makes more likely the idea that a "result admits of more than one interpretation."