The following appeared as part of a business plan by the Capital Idea Investment firm.
“Currently more and more books are becoming available in electronic form — either free of charge on the Internet or for a very low price per book on CD-ROM.* People who would not pay bookstore prices will now have access to whatever book they want from their home or work computers. Consequently, literary classics are likely to be read more widely than ever before: 72 percent of those responding to a recent online survey said they would read books in electronic form, and 81 percent said they believed that reading classic works was important. Given this newly developing market, we should invest in E-Classics, a new company that sells electronic versions of literary classics.”
*A CD-ROM is a small portable disc capable of storing relatively large amounts of data that can be read by a computer.
The conclusion endorsed in this argument is that the Capital Idea Investment firm should invest in E-Class. Several reasons are rendered for support of the argument.First of all,the auhor points out that in rencent survey, 72% percent of those responding would read more widely than before.In addition,he also contend that 81% percent responding believed that classic works was important. At first glance,the author’s argument appears to be somewhat concincing,but further scrutiny reveal that the conclusion is based on some problematic assumption and the reasoning is biase due to the inadequacy and partiality in the nature of evidence provided to justify the conclusion.A close examination would review how groundless this conclusion is.
In the first place ,the author bases the claim on the rencen online survey that indicates majority of responsing will read wildly than before.However,the author failed to provide how wildy the online survey covers.For example , if the survey only select 100 people, it is clearly that the results of the survey lacks representatives.
In the second place, another problematic evidence that undermines the argument is how recently the survey was conducted.The less rencent the survey itself,the less reliable the results demonstrate to the fact that majority would read more widely than before.
Last but not least,the author unfairly assumes that the Capital Idea Investment firm should invest in E-Class.However,the author neglect the other factors that influence the determininig of the investment ,such as compeitives.For example, there are many competitives in this market, Prospect of profit maybe very vagour.
To sum up, the conclusion is not persuasive as it stands.Accordingly,it is imprudent for the author to contend that the Capital Idea Investment firm should invest in E-Class.to make the argument logicallu acceptable,the author would have to show that majority will read more widely than before.In addition, to solidify the conclusion,the author should provinde concrete evidence as well to demonstrate that there are fewer competitives in this market.Only with more convincing evidence could the conclusion become more than just an emotional appeal.
2006-08-18 15:43
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发表于 2006-8-19 04:51:00
