I really admire your self confident! Additionally, I totally agree with you that If you believe in yourself and work hard, you are more likely to succeed.
However, life is NOT that simple and sometimes is more complicated than we thought. Even a view as simple as top5, some people may have their own perspectives. MBA is analogeous to an investment worth about USD 100,000. Thus, it is understandable that some people want to balance and weigh before moving. In my view, this is a wise approach.
We ofen say that "wish for the best and prepare for the worst".  lanning is the key!
Superoldman:
I think that you may put more energy on essays to schools in top 20 and less on schools between 20 and 30. Sometimes, a good essay consumes your time as long as three months.