AAA7, 欢迎大家拍砖

tiwwang

半小时挤出来的， 部分typo是超时改的

请NN们指点

A7

The following is a memorandum to the president of the EZ-Manufacturing Company from the manager of cafeteria services.

“Offering pizza in our cafeteria has proved extremely profitable. To further increase our profits from pizza sales, we should switch to PDQ Pizzeria to supply our pizza. PDQ pizza was twice voted the ‘best pizza’ in the neighboring town of Hamiltonia in on-line surveys of Hamiltonia Gazette readers. The PDQ branch in our town currently sells pizza for only slightly more than our cafeteria does and has begun offering free daily delivery. Switching to PDQ pizza will clearly improve satisfaction with our cafeteria and hence increase the cafeteria’s profits.” (12.8 ? sallyzhou / 12.8 北美 juh)

The author concludes that switching to PDQ pizza will clearly improve satisfaction with the cafeteria and then increase the cafeteria's profits. To bolster his conclusion, the author cites the result from an on-line survey which shows that the PDQ pizza was twice voted the "best pizza" in the neighboring town. Additionally, He infers that the price of the PDQ pizza is only slightly higher than the cafeteria's. At the first glance, this argument appears to be some what appealing, while further reflection tells us that there are several reasoning flaws, which make the argument unconvincing.

First of all,  The author does  not tell us the detail information about the survey in neighboring town. We don't know who conducted the poll, who responded, what was the pecentage of people who voted for PDQ pizza. If these questions remain answered, it is hard to draw to conclusion. For example, if there are 10000 residents in neighboring town, only 1000 people responded to the survey. The conclusion that the PDQ pizza is popular in neighboring town should be seriously doubted.

Even if the result of the survey is accurate, we still need consider other factors to draw the conclusion. The success of PDQ pizza in neighboring town does not necessarily mean it will succeed in this town. The author makes a gratuitous assumption here. There is no evidence to support the assumption. It is entirely possible that this town does not have the factor which leads the PDQ pizza's popularity in town of Hamiltonia. For example, 90 percent of the residents in town of Hamiltonia are Italian, who like PDQ pizza, while in this town, 90 percent people are French who do not like PDQ pizza at all. In this case, the failure of PDQ pizza's sales can be easily predicted. Without checking and ruling out all other possible reasons, the author should not conclude in this way.

Thirdly, the author does not tell us whether the greater sales of PDQ pizza can compensate the higher cost, because the price of PDQ pizza is slightly higher that the pizza used in the cafeteria now.

Since the author commits the above mentioned logical mistakes and fails to consider the situation comprehensively, his conclusion lacks credibility. In order to make his argument more persuasive, the author would better do more research and rule out some other facts which may lead PDQ pizza's success in town of Hamiltonia.