[揽瓜阁逻辑小分队] day154

小卡lethe

offer到

1 农村孩子耐过敏
有一道评价题。农场上的动物身上好像有个什么东西能导致过敏。农场小孩比城市小孩更能抵抗过敏因为他们经常接触这些动物。所以为了抵抗过敏，应该多接触这些物质。
以下哪个most helpful in evaluatingthe argument。

【逻辑链】动物有过敏原→农村小孩接触多→农村小孩少过敏→多接触抗过敏

【答案方向】有没有其他途径接触这种物质来抵抗过敏

2 犯罪率
The violent crimerate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase forParkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion thatresidents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crimethan are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails totake into account：

【问题内容】犯罪率M上升60%但P上升10%(注意这里是跟自己比的)→M人比P人更容易犯罪
A. changes in the population density of bothParkdale and Meadowbrook over the past four years (P和M人口密度的变化-密度是对比单位面积人口-未提 无关×)
B. how the rate of population growth inMeadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate forParkdale (M和P的人口增长率对比-本来纠结这个选项，但发现只知道增长率也无法知道基数 而这个题目需要基数-不行×)
C. the ratio of violent to nonviolent crimescommitted during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale (暴力犯罪和非暴力犯罪的比例-无关×)
D. the violentcrime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago (四年前的犯罪率)
E. how Meadowbrook’s expenditures forcrime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures (犯罪预防的费用？-无关×)

3 气候预测
关于climate预测，气象学家见了一个新computer system/software可以准确预测。用这个新的东西来输入pastdate都显示的很准，所以它推测未来20年气温会上升0.4度也是accurate的。求weaken。

【逻辑链】数据库准→预测准

【答案方向】目前的气候影响因素与过去气候变化的影响因素截然不同

DonkeyG

1.        农村孩子耐过敏
有一道评价题。农场上的动物身上好像有个什么东西能导致过敏。农场小孩比城市小孩更能抵抗过敏因为他们经常接触这些动物。所以为了抵抗过敏，应该多接触这些物质。

以下哪个most helpful in evaluating the argument。

就是判断接触频率和过敏的关系

2.       犯罪率
The violent crimerate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase forParkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion thatresidents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crimethan are residents of Parkdale.
The argument aboveis flawed because it fails to take into account：
A. changes in thepopulation density of both Parkdale and Meadowbrook over the past four years
B. how the rate ofpopulation growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to thecorresponding rate for Parkdale
C. the ratio ofviolent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years inMeadowbrook and Parkdale
D. the violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale fouryears ago
E. how Meadowbrook’sexpenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures
D， 只说了增长率，没说之前啥样

3.       气候预测
关于climate预测，气象学家见了一个新的computer system/software 可以准确预测。用这个新的东西来输入pastdate都显示的很准，所以它推测未来20年气温会上升0.4度也是accurate的。
求weaken。

它是根据过去数据来判断的，所以肯定准，但是未来不一定啊。

目前天气变化比以往更大，更难以预测。

小卡lethe

小卡lethe 发表于 2023-3-14 15:21
offer到
1 农村孩子耐过敏
有一道评价题。农场上的动物身上好像有个什么东西能导致过敏。农场小孩比城市小 ...

绝了，连续两次在CD许愿offer到真的拿到offer，还愿！感谢CD

svdw

同意！               

elopealone

Day 154
1.        农村孩子耐过敏
有一道评价题。农场上的动物身上好像有个什么东西能导致过敏。农场小孩比城市小孩更能抵抗过敏因为他们经常接触这些动物。所以为了抵抗过敏，应该多接触这些物质。
以下哪个most helpful in evaluating the argument。
【评价】需要了解农场小孩是不是可以真的通过接触动物继而接触到农场动物身上的过敏原（这种过敏原是不是可以通过物理接触而传播？）

2.        犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account：
A. changes in the population density of both Parkdale and Meadowbrook over the past four years
B. how the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C. the ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D. the violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E. how Meadowbrook’s expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures
【缺陷】【现象解释-果因】增长的百分比高，不一定犯罪率的绝对值高，因为没考虑基础犯罪率。
因此选D

3.        气候预测
关于climate预测，气象学家见了一个新的computer system/software 可以准确预测。用这个新的东西来输入past date都显示的很准，所以它推测未来20年气温会上升0.4度也是accurate的。
求weaken。           
【削弱】
- 可能过去气候模式 和未来20年气候模式已经有了根本不同，这个系统的预测模型已经不适用于未来；

OneForTheRoad

来了！

OneForTheRoad

1.        农村孩子耐过敏
有一道评价题。农场上的动物身上好像有个什么东西能导致过敏。农场小孩比城市小孩更能抵抗过敏因为他们经常接触这些动物。所以为了抵抗过敏，应该多接触这些物质。
以下哪个most helpful in evaluating the argument。
P：农场动物携带的x可导致过敏，农村小孩因为经常与动物接触更多所以比城市小孩更能抵抗过敏
C： 为了抵抗过敏，应该多接触农场动物携带的x物质
- 是否有其他物质导致过敏
- 能对物质产生抗体是否是因为接触过多该物质


2.        犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account：
A. changes in the population density of both Parkdale and Meadowbrook over the past four years
B. how the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C. the ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D. the violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E. how Meadowbrook’s expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures
P： M市现在的暴力犯罪率（每1000民市民中暴力犯罪的数量）比4年前高了60%，相应的，P市只增长了10%
C：M市的市民更可能比P市的市民成为暴力犯罪的受害者
- D正确，仅知道增长的百分比，并不知道四年前犯罪率是多少，有可能M市犯罪数量就比P市小很多，即使增长速率大于P数，犯罪数量还是比P市少



3.        气候预测
关于climate预测，气象学家见了一个新的computer system/software 可以准确预测。用这个新的东西来输入past date都显示的很准，所以它推测未来20年气温会上升0.4度也是accurate的。
求weaken。
P：一个system输入past date的气候都显示得很准
C ：所以这个system预测未来也很准
- 这个system预测过去的气候准是基于已有的数据

Ak777

同意！               

Ak777

Day 154
1.        农村孩子耐过敏
有一道评价题。农场上的动物身上好像有个什么东西能导致过敏。农场小孩比城市小孩更能抵抗过敏因为他们经常接触这些动物。所以为了抵抗过敏，应该多接触这些物质。
以下哪个most helpful in evaluating the argument。
-是否这个东西接触多了能产生抵抗力
-是否因为城市小孩某方面相较农村小孩更匮乏，才使他们更容易过敏。


2.        犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account：
A. changes in the population density of both Parkdale and Meadowbrook over the past four years
B. how the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C. the ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D. the violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E. how Meadowbrook’s expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures
-D  M从1%涨到1.6%，P从90%涨到99%，结论显而易见

3.        气候预测
关于climate预测，气象学家见了一个新的computer system/software 可以准确预测。用这个新的东西来输入past date都显示的很准，所以它推测未来20年气温会上升0.4度也是accurate的。
求weaken。
-系统就是通过输入了所有post date数据训练而成。那显示过去的数据当然准确，但不代表预测未来很准确。

Nora小碗

看一下！