[阅读小分队] 揽瓜阁做题小分队 第9天 经济指标

SamHKG700

P1：经济学家会用三种指标来判断经济的走势，及这三种指标的定义
P2：第一种是相关因素，如制造业指数和就业率，是伴随经济状况变化而变化的，它们用来刻画现在
P3：第二种是领导因素，如抵押申请率和利润率，它们预示经济走向；第三种是滞后因素，它们验证预测的准确度
P4：indicators对于经济学家和经济来说的作用

B及站士

P1. 不同的經濟因素對經濟有不同的影響, 可將這些因素分門別類成指標, 經濟學家可利用這些指標做預測判斷
P2&P3. 介紹三種不同指標"Coincident","Leading"以及"Lagging"
P4. 作者認為經濟因素應該歸類在哪一種指標需要對數據的充分分析及對經濟的瞭解
     另外也提到瞭解景氣循環中的事件如何導致改變需要框架化的認識"經濟指標", 此舉有助於避免誤判以及帶領國家走出低迷景氣

文章重點還是在於三種指標的列舉及介紹, 最後一段比較像廢話XD
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P1
1. Context: different elements of the economy -> different changes in prosperity
2. Elaborate:
a. coincident indicators: rise and fall as the economy
b. leading indicators: show a downturn before the economy does
c. lagging indicators: lose vigor after the economy has already begun to slow
3. Argument: Economists can predict the economy by these indicators

P2.
1. Coincident indicators: manufacturing and employment rates – best for current state – to know whether economy goes ↑or↓(sustained prosperity)
2. Disadvantage: predict near future(X)

P3.
1. Leading indicators: predictive power – mortgage applications and profit margins – foretell changes in economic behavior that lead to shifts in the economic cycle
2. Lagging indicators: useless for prediction – helpful in confirming the assessments of economists

P4.
1. Argument(1): which elements of the economy fall into which category of indicator – analysis of data and understanding the factors that propel the economy
2. Argument(2): which events surrounding a turn in the business cycle actually contributed to the change – solid framework for understanding the behavior of these indicators – help to avoid miscalculations and to guide the country through periods of slow or negative economic growth

joliajjj

文章结构：
P1:经济指标衡量经济健康
P2: Coincident indicators衡量 current state of the economy（manufacturing and employment rates,）
P3: leading indicators可以foretell similar changes in the country’s economic health（mortgage applications and profit margins） laging indicators的特点
P4:总结这些指标
ADAB