OG17 CR 661

Jez

661.In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade Agency'srecords were reviewed in 1994 in light of information then newly availableabout neighboring Goro. The review revealed that in everyyear since 1963, the agency's projection of what Goro’s gross national product (GNP) wouldbe five years later was a serious underestimate. The review also revealed thatin every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro’s GNP for the previous year—a Gorostate secret—very accurately.

Of the following claims, which is most strongly supported by the statements given?

(A)  Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly between1963 and 1994.

(B)   Prior to 1995, Gorohad not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-yearprojections.

(C)   The amount by which the agencyunderestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase overtime.

(D)   Even before the new information came tolight, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-yearprojections it had made were inaccurate.

(E)   The agency’s five-year projections of Goro’s GNP had no impact on economicplanning in Marut.

答案：D

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请问各位CDer这篇文章有没有一个前提是：

五年后的GNP预测是建立在五年前的预测上？

比如：1980年要预测1985年的gnp，是建立在1975年对1980年预测的gnp数值上的。

Jez

D选项：（假如今年是1980年）

首先，不需要怀疑，在1974年以及之前做的所有五年预估都已经知道不准确了，因为1979年以及之前的gnp都被准确计算出来了且与五年预估相差甚远。

那么，FTA能够怀疑的只有1975-1980年这六年所做的 五年预估，因为尚不能计算这些年准确的gnp值，所以D选项是再说FTA怀疑这六年做的预估咯？

lisiberry

Hi
未必，因为文章里并没说。

lisiberry

Jez 发表于 2017-3-17 14:32
D选项：（假如今年是1980年）

首先，不需要怀疑，在1974年以及之前做的所有五年预估都已经知道不准确了， ...

比如说一个机构，每年算一个值都算错，那么你觉得今年它是不是有可能性再次算错呢？

而且，D中并不是要绝对地说今年一定会算错。只是说有理由相信会算错。而这个理由就是以前总是算错这个事实。


不明白再问哈。

Jez

lisiberry 发表于 2017-3-18 00:43
比如说一个机构，每年算一个值都算错，那么你觉得今年它是不是有可能性再次算错呢？

而且，D中并不是要 ...

嗯 这么说也有道理 谢啦

cuikaka

原argument的意思：agency对于G国GNP的预估总是有别于5年后公布的实际数据
预想结论：agency的预估可能有误

D agency had a reason to think that projection were inaccurate 并且还有 “at least some”等表示可能性的状语 =》D选项用非常谨慎、委婉的语气在说“agency的预估可能有误”