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12prep里一道CR题的新思考

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发表于 2016-9-25 21:24:15 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式
Prep2012-Pack1-CR-069            VCR005518       Hard
Southington University's fund-raisers succeeded in getting donationsfrom 80 percentof the potentialdonors they contacted this year. This rate would be the expectedrate if the only potentialdonors contacted were those who have donatedin the past. But good fund-raisers constantly contact less likely prospects in an effort to expandthe donor base. Thus the high successrate, far from showing that the fund-raisers did a good job, shows insufficient canvassing effort.
Which of the following, if true, most seriouslyweakens the argument?
A.       Among potentialdonors contacted by Southington University's fund-raisers, the majority of those who did not make donationswere people who had made donationsto the university in the past.
B.       The amountof money raisedby Southington University's fundraisers this year was lower than the amountthey had raised in any of the previous severalyears.
C.       Individual donations made to Southington University this year were, on average,slightly larger than were average individual donations made to many other universities.
D.     Fund-raisers contacting past donors are not only to get new donationsbut also to get names ofpotential new donorsto contact.
E.      The majorityof the donations that fund-raisers succeeded in gettingfor Southington University were from donors who had never given to the university before.
OA:E

关于69题的分析看完下面这道孪生子题的分析就一目了然了

补充一道和69题类似的真题(孪生子题)
Smithtown University’s fund-raisers succeeded ingetting donations from 80 percent of the potential donors they contacted. This success rate, exceptionally high for university fund-raisers, does notindicate that they were doing a good job.  On the contrary, since thepeople most likely to donate are those who have donated in the past, goodfund-raisers constantly try less-likely prospects in an effort to expand thedonor base.  The high success rate shows insufficient canvassing effort.
Which of the following, if true, provides more supportfor the argument?
A. Smithtown University’s fund-raiserswere successful in their contacts with potential donors who had never givenbefore about as frequently as were fund-raisers for other universities in theircontacts with such people.
B. This year the average size of the donations toSmithtown University from new donors when the university’s fund-raisers hadcontacted was larger than the average size of donations from donors who hadgiven to the university before.
C. This year most of the donations that came toSmithtown University from people who had previously donated to it were madewithout the university’s fund-raisers having made any contact with the donors.
D. The majority of the donations thatfund-raisers succeeded in getting for Smithtown University this year were fromdonors who had never given to the university before.
E. More than half of the money raised bySmithtown University’s fund-raisers came from donors who had never previouslydonated to the university.
OA:A

其实问题类型很明确:属于排除他因的假设加强性题目

分析如下:
Fact:在S大学联系的捐款人中有80%捐了,这个数目相当高,即比其他大学高
Premise:①资金来源1:过去的捐赠者,事实是过去的捐赠者现在仍为捐赠者,因此这类捐款者属于不请自来,不用在资金来源1上费工夫也可以得到钱
②资金来源2:新的捐赠者:好的大学筹款人应该把重点放在那些以前没捐过钱的人身上,即把目标定在资金来源2上
Conclusion:S大学的筹款人并没有努力筹款

很明显,逻辑链中间缺了一个巨大的gap,

在没看选项之前,其实已经可以推测出那个缺失的假设了——S大学的筹款人没有在资金来源2上努力,他们80%的捐款率主要来自于不劳而获的过去捐赠者

现在再看选项,很快发现A项就是在说S大学从资金来源2的筹款率和其他学校相差无几,那就说明这个80%的显著捐款率不是由于资金来源2造成的,即说明了S大学在资金来源2上没有下功夫,OK,we get it!

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