prep 08，求解惑~

wuwanying

下面是CD prep08里的一道题

Citizens of Parktown are worried bythe increased frequency of serious crimes committed by local teenagers.  In response, the city government hasinstituted a series of measures designed to keep teenagers at home in the lateevening.  Even if the measures succeed inkeeping teenagers at home, however, they are unlikely to affect the problemthat concerns citizens, since most crimes committed by local teenagers takeplace between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m.

Which of thefollowing, if true, most substantially weakens the argument?

A. Similar measuresadopted in other places have failed to reduce the number of teenagers on thestreets in the late evening.

B. The crimescommitted by teenagers in the afternoon are mostly small thefts andinconsequential vandalism.

C. Teenagers aremuch less likely to commit serious crimes when they are at home than when theyare not at home.

D. Any decrease inthe need for police patrols in the late evening would not mean that there couldbe more intensive patrolling in the afternoon.

E. The schools inParktown have introduced a number of after-school programs that will beavailable to teenagers until 6 p.m. on weekday afternoons.

1.     由问题问法得知，此题是评估类的题目。

2.     找到前提和结论：

结论句是：Even ifthe measures succeed in keeping teenagers at home, however, they are unlikelyto affect the problem that concerns citizens.

3.     判断推理模式：

通过前提和结论的关系，首先可以排除类比，统计枚举，和方案推理。又由前提与结论发生的逻辑时间，我们可以知道，前提是因，结论是果。所以该题目是因果模式推理。本题主要的前提其实是最后半句话：“mostcrimes committed by local teenagers take place between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m.”

前提（因）是：“大部分当地青少年的犯罪都是在下午3点到6点发生的”

结论（果）是：“就算晚上让青少年都在家中（6点以后），也无法减少Parktown公民对于当地

青少年严重犯罪的担心”

4.     找到答案方向：

因果模式推理有两个CQ：

CQ1：因果概括问题。

CQ2：干扰因素问题。

因果类型的题目，答案选项必须说出一个因的可导致结论可信度的变化的特点或者是直接涉及到因果之间的联系。

选项分析：

A.    其他地方用同样的防止青少年晚上外出的方法都无法令晚上外出的青少年数量减少。该选项不是“因”的特点。

B.    Correct. 大部分青少年在下午时间犯的罪都是一些诸如小偷小摸和后果不严重破坏公务等罪。显然，这是青少年下午犯罪的一个可以影响“果”中公众对于严重犯罪的担心的特点。可以减少结论的可信度。直接涉及了因果之间的联系，削弱原文。属于CQ1：因果概括问题

C.    青少年在家中比不在家中有更低的可能性严重犯罪。该选项不涉及“因”的特点。

D.    任何在晚上对于巡警的需求的降低并不表明在下午可以加强巡逻。“因”的内容是大部分犯罪发生在下午，这个选项并不是“因”的某种特点。

E.     Parktown的学校在周末组织了很多直到下午6点的课外项目。这个选项是试图反驳前提，也就是3点到6点，学校一般都可以组织活动。请记住，如果想靠反驳前提而削弱文段，必须明确的直接反驳，而不是“削弱”前提。

我的疑问是C为什么不对呢？感觉直接削弱了呀

B这里有个跳跃，下午犯的罪是轻微的，难道这样军呢过推出晚上犯的罪一定是重大的吗？

求小伙伴们拍砖

VincentFSJ

however, they are unlikely to affect the problemthat concerns citizens, since most crimes committed by local teenagers takeplace between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m.
p：most crimes committed by local teenagers takeplace between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m.
c：晚上不出门并不会减少serious crime
假设：下午teenagers会serious crime.
我觉得只能意会了。尽管B说了下午犯得大多是偷窃。
C一看就觉得不对呀。在家不那么容易犯罪，但是没有说到下午的问题啊