OG17新题661

K先生的小情人

In the country of Marut, the Foreign TradeAgency's records were reviewed in 1994 in light of information then newlyavailable about neig-hboring Goro. The review revealed that in every year since1963, the agency's projection of what Goro's gross national product (GNP) wouldbe five years later was a serious underestimate. The review also revealed thatin every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previousyear—a Goro state secret—very accurately.

Of the following claims, which is most stronglysupported by the statements given?

(A) Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly between 1963and 1994.

(B) Prior to 1995, Goro had not released dataintended to mislead the agency in making its five-year

projections.

(C) The amount by which the agency underestimatedthe GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase

overtime.

(D) Even before the new information came tolight, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-yearprojections it had made were inaccurate.

(E) The agency's five-year projections of Goro'sGNP had no impact on economic planning in Marut.

答案D  想不太明白 求高人解答

毕出-Helr

情景：在M国，FTA的记录被在1994年检查。数据显示，自从1963年的每一年，该机构低估了G 国5年后的GNP。这个检查也显示了，自从1963年的每一年，该机构对G国前一年的GNP的估计是非常准确的。

推理：由于本题问的是哪项被文章给出的信息所支持，所以本题为演绎推理。


选项分析：

A选项： G国的GNP在1963至1994年之间波动剧烈。推理文段中确实暗示了这段时间GNP有波动，但是这个波动是否剧烈我们就不得而知了。

B选项： 在1995年以前，G国没有给出过一些误导该机构的五年预测的信息。推理文段中完全没有提到本选项的信息。

C选项： 该机构对G国的GNP所低估的数量是一直在上升的。推理文段中没有给出过低估多少的信息。

D选项：Correct. 就算在数据被公布之前，该机构也有理由认为至少某些五年的预测是不准确的。显然地，因为G国每次5年的预测和对过去一年的回顾的数据都不同，所以无论信息是否公布，这个机构都有理由思考自己是不是预测出现了问题。

E选项：该机构对G国GNP的五年预测不会影响M国的经济计划。推理文段中没有给出本选项的信息。