OG16 CR 第88题

Chenmandy

Debater: the average amount of overtime per month worked by an employee in the manufacturing division of the Haglut Corporation is 14 hours. Most employees of the Haglut Corporation work in the manufaturing division. Furthermore, the average amount of overtime per month worked by any employee in the company generally does not fluctuate much from month to month. Therefore, each month, most employees of the Hauglut Corporation almost certainly work at least some overtime.The debater's argument is most vulnerable to criticism on which of these grounds?

D) It overlooks the possiblity that even of, on average, a certain amount of overtime is worked by the members of some group, many members of that group may work no overtime at all.
E) It overlooks the possiblity that even if most employees of the corporation work some overtime each month, any one corporate employee may, in some months, work no overtime.
答案是选D，我不明白为什么不是选E，并且也不是很明白答案D，
有哪位大神可以帮我解答一下吗？

alzn2765

conclusion: each month, most employees of the Hauglut Corporation almost certainly work at least some overtime.
Negation: each month, NOT most employees of the Hauglut Corporation almost certainly work at least some overtime.= each month, some employees of the Hauglut Corporation almost certainly do not work at least some overtime.---->正好是D的内容

E. It overlooks the possiblity that even if most employees of the corporation work some overtime each month, any one corporate employee may, in some months, work no overtime.
even if..., .....这是一个让步转折句式。那么也就是even if后面的内容一定跟后面的主句并不矛盾。那还vulnerable to criticism个啥？
举个例子：
日本人都是人。反驳？
如果我说：即使日本人都是人，他们做的也是畜生的行为。“他们做的也是畜生的行为”本身跟其条件“日本人都是人”并不矛盾，也就不能起到削弱的作用。也就是说我说的等于“日本人是做畜生行为的人”。

mnimi

这是一道很经典的数据题：
题目给了3个条件：
1. employees in M ' average overwork/month = 14H           M部门月平均加班小时多
2. employees in M % is big                                             M部门工人占全厂工人比重高
3. most emloyee average overtime/month doesn't fluctuate 大部分工人月平均加班时间波动不大
结论
=>most employee work some overtime                            大部分工人有加班
思路是：
首先对average的理解 average和fluctuate没有直接关系，一个是在人头上平均，一个是在时间上平均。而此题结论是在人头上平均，所以第三个条件没什么用。 所以也不能选E。E 是说工人在有些月份可能不加班。这句话没错，但是不能削弱结论，因为结论和时间上的平均无关。
M部门人数占比高且加班时间长，就能推出大部分工人有加班吗?会不会M部门只有10%的员工加了很多班，平均下来，提高了平均加班时间，而不是每个M部门员工都加班呢(D)？那便得不出全厂大部门员工都加班的结论了。所以选D

lvlv10

E选项说的most employees of the corporation work some overtime each month和题干中的结论是一样的啊  所以不能削弱结论啊
D选项正相反，说的是一部分人可能work overtime  但不能说明大部分员工都如此  削弱了结论
个人看法哈  还求大神指教