写了篇argument 求拍~！真诚球拍

witchingwang

题目， 基本我下划线的就是我不怎么会改变的东西。1. The following appeared as part of an annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic Foods, a processor of frozen foods.
“Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient.In color film processing, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 centsfor one-day service in 1984. The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods will soon celebrateits twenty-fifth birthday, we can expect that our long experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits.”

下面摘自一家冷冻食品处理商（processor）奥林匹克食品提交给股东的年报：随着时间流逝，由于机构了解了做好事情的方法进而提高了效率，处理的成本会降低。比如在彩色胶卷处理方面，3/5英寸照片的成本从1970年的5天50cent降至1984年的1天20cent。同样的规律适用于食品处理方面。由于奥林匹克食品即将庆祝它的25岁生日，我们可以指望我们长期的经验会使我们达到最小的成本和最大的利润。

1. false analogy: The food industry is not analogous to the color film industry.

2. causal oversimplification: Other factors that may contribute t to the cost decline of the printing cost should be considered and ruled out.

3. gratuitous assumption: The conclusion of the argument is based on a gratuitous assumption that the company  can minimize cost and maximize profit because the company has been conducted for 25 years.



1. 错误类比：color film processing和processing of food不相同。problems of spoilage, contamination, and timely transportation都只影响food 不影响film.

2. 同时，忽略他因。是否是因为组织更有效率才使COST下降的？很可能是material necessary for the process下降了价钱。所以，两者更不同。

gratuitous assumption：二十五年不代表学到了很多。很可能什么都没学到，或者技术已经out of date.




In this article, the author reaches conclusion that the Olympic company should decrease the cost and increase the productivity by the way in which organizations learning how to do things better. The basis for this recommendation is that the color firm decrease the cost and increase the efficiency from 1970 to 1984. At the first glance, the author's argument appears to be somewhat convincing, further reflection reveal that is unconvencing cause to suffers from two critical flaws.



First, the argument relies on what might be a fault analogy between Olympic Foods (OF)and color film. In order for the color film to serve as a model which OF should emulate, the author must assume that all relevant circumstance involving the processing are essentially the same. However this assumption is unwarranted. For example, the author overlooks the  possibility that food processing is much different from the color print processing. The problems of spoilage, contamination or timely transportation seriously compact food processing industry rather than color print. In short, if the author cannot offer more evidence to substantiate that the food processing is same as color print processing, this conclusion cannot convince me.



Second, the recommendation depends on the assumption that no alternative means of decreasing the costs of processing. Yet no evidence is offered to substantiate this assumption. Admittedly, the organization learn how to do things better can help decrease the cost of processing. However, it is entirely possible that the color film introduce new machine, or that the prices of materials of the color print industry are decreased, led to the cost of processing go down. Without considering and ruling out these and other alternative means of decreasing cost of processing, the author cannot confidently conclude that organizations learn how to do things better can led to the cost of processing go down.



Third, the author argue that their long experience will enable they to minimize costs and maximize profits. This argument concludes, based on a known that correlation between long time experience and getting good profits, that the later is attributable to the former. Yet the author offer no evidence to substantiate this relationship. However, it is entirely possible that the 25 years experience cannot follow the new technology, these experience are out of date. If it is the case, the long time experience cannot bring any advance to increase the profits. So if the author cannot provide more evidence to substantiate that is effect in increasing the profits, this conclusion cannot convince me.



In short,  this is a weak argument. To strengthen the argument that the organizations learn how to do things can led the cost of processing down, and that their long time experience can help company get more profits, the author should provide a thorough reason analysis of available alternatives.