问狒狒逻辑104题，求大家指点，多谢啦

yjx090963

狒狒逻辑
104. That the policy of nuclear deterrence has worked thus far is unquestionable. Since the end of the Second World War, the very fact that there were nuclear armaments in existence has kept major powers from using nuclear weapons, for fear of starting a worldwide nuclear exchange that would make the land of the power initiating it uninhabitable. The proof is that a third world war between superpowers has not happened.

Which one of the following, if true, indicates a flaw in the argument?

A. Maintaining a high level of nuclear armaments represents a significant drain on a country’s economy.
B. From what has happened in the past, it is impossible to infer with certainty what will happen in the future, so an accident could still trigger a third world war between superpowers.
C. Continuing to produce nuclear weapons beyond the minimum needed for deterrence increase the likelihood of a nuclear accident.
D. The major powers have engaged in many smaller-scale military operations since the end of the Second World War, while refraining from a nuclear confrontation.
E. It cannot be known whether it was nuclear deterrence that worked, or some other factor, such as a recognition of the economic value of remaining at peace.
答案E，想问为什么B错。
求各路NN指点

camelo777

B错在没有切对问题的主旨
这个argument的结论是the policy of nuclear deterrence has worked thus far，原因是第三次世界大战还没有发生。

B有迷惑性，但是注意一个重点，题目只是说到现在为止还没有发生“The proof is that a third world war between superpowers has not happened”， 并没有说将来也不会发生，文章只是说到现在还没有发生的原因是这个policy of nuclear deterrence
那么B就无关了
相反，E就很成功的削弱了这个结论，E说不能确定是这个policy of nuclear deterrence  worked 还是别的原因，这是一个典型的他因削弱

比目鱼香肉丝

楼上的解释很详细，谢谢。
B是无关选项。

miffyhui

up

maestri

提干的主干是：因为到现在都没发生三战，因此结论：到目前为止ND都有效，这点是不容置疑的。

答案找削弱项，即：能不能从没发生世界大战，推论出ND的有效性？

B ：说的是可能发生世界大战，与能否推论出ND的有效性这个结论无关的
D：没发生世界大战，可能还有经济的原因，削弱了这个结论的成立