OG20 求问 为什么我总觉的正确选项是错的

1998JIN

Supply shortages and signs of growing demand are driving cocoa prices upward.Unusually severe weather in cocoa-producing regions—too much rain in Brazil and too little in West Africa—has limited production. Further, Europe and North America recently reported stronger demand for cocoa. In the first quarter, grinding of cocoa beans—the first stage in processing cocoa for chocolate—rose 8.1 percent in Europe and 16 percent in North America. Analysts have concluded that cocoa's price will continue to rise at least into the near future.

Which of the following would, if true, most strengthen the reasoning above?



A Ground cocoa beans can be stored for long periods before they spoil.   


B Several European and North American manufacturers that use cocoa have recently improved their processing capacity.   


C It takes new cocoa trees five or six years before they start bearing fruit.   


D Governments in Europe and North America are likely to change current restrictions on cocoa imports.   


E Historically, cocoa production has varied widely from year to year.



这题代表了一类我经常做错但是难度不大的题目，这种题目最大的麻烦就是，我觉得五个选项都是错的，都不严谨，找错误选项的错误一找一个准，但是我总误伤正确选项就有点崩溃了


这个题我是这么做的，AE肯定不对，一点关系都没有，然后B：several我觉得不对，capacity和demand之间的关系我觉得牵强
C ： 明白它想说生产周期长，但是题目里没说要多种树啊，这逻辑总感觉怪怪的
现在天气不好导致的产量低，如果不种新的树，那新树的生产周期和供给没有什么关系
除非是 现在决定要新种树了，那就有关系了，因为种了也来不及

所以我觉得c的意思就是现在我们要新种树了，但是新的树要过很久才能有果实，所以供给近几年还是弱
如果C 对，那就是假设coco供不应求所以我们现在要种树了
这个假设我觉得也很牵强，感觉脑补太多了

D: 没说怎么change

于是我陷入了对BCD 的无限纠结，然后我就瞎选了一个，一般就会选错


对答案的时候往往os就是，我也想到这了啊，但是这个逻辑我觉得也太扯了，怎么可能是正确选项的逻辑，谁知道他还真是  

求问有没有类似经历的同学指教一下，怎么才能不觉得正确选项的逻辑很扯。。。

Bensontuo

放鬆

來, 我們一步一步來看。 首先, 我們馬上看題幹要問什麼, 好, 要支持原文邏輯。 既然要支持原文邏輯, 我們馬上要有三個想法

1. 找必要假設

2. 找其他例子擁有類似的邏輯關係

3. 刪除所有不相關的答案。

好, 原文邏輯看過一遍之後, 要馬上找到核心。



A. Ground cocoa beans can be stored for long periods before they spoil.- Weaken

喔～～有沒有可能有存貨？ 既然有存貨又不會壞掉, 那價格絕對不會“在最近的將來”上升

B. Several European and North American manufacturers that use cocoa have recently improved their processing capacity.- Irrelevant, the processing capacity was not a bottleneck and thus improvement in processing capacity will not help.

處理巧克力豆的速度變快。 重點來了, 你有巧克力豆可以處理嗎？ 沒有。  你處理速度變快了跟價錢有關係嗎？沒有。 有沒有關係呢？ 沒有。



C. It takes new cocoa trees five or six years before they start bearing fruit.- Correct, this addresses the issue from supply side. What it means that people cannot increase the production of Cocoa in short notice and thus supply WILL NOT increase

啊原文不就有講到主要產區, 巴西跟西非因為天氣關係所以產量縮減嗎？然後如果要增加產量, 勢必要種樹, 可是種新樹又要等, 所以沒辦法立即的幫忙到現在產量,  那既然可預期的產量縮減, 而需求又上升, 價格不就自動上昇？



D. Governments in Europe and North America are likely to change current restrictions on cocoa imports. - Irrelevant, we have no idea how strict the current restrictions are. It may be that current restrictions are already very little. Also, we are told that demand and supply factors are driving up the prices.


改變到底是變好還是變不好, 題目沒說, 所以我們不要自己下定論

E. Historically, cocoa production has varied widely from year to year. - Irrelevant

所以呢？ 有可能今年不好明年好, 也有可能今年好明年不好 （ 不必要啊）

Answer C