17 og 632题目 求解析 求讨论

蟹黄味蚕豆

Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping district healthy, it should prevent the opening of a huge SaveAll discount department store on the outskirts of Morganville. Records from other small town, within five years the town has experienced the bankruptcies of more than a quarter of the store in the shopping districts.

The answer to which of the following would be best useful for evaluating the community activist's reasoning?

A. Have community activist in other towns successfully campaigned against the opening of a SaveAll store on the outskirts of their towns?

B. Do a large percentage of the residents of Morganville do almost all of their shopping currently at stores in Morganville?

C. In towns with healthy central shopping districts, what proportion of the stores in those districts suffer bankruptcy during a typical five-year period?

D. What proportion of the employees at the SaveAll store on the outskirts of Morganville will be drawn from Morganville?

E. Do newly opened SaveAll stores ever lose money during their first five year of operation?

看了第一遍，知道是一个类比推理。但是看完选项是懵逼的，只有D选项，是比较了M和其他的small towns的，于是选了D，看OG的解释没有跟类比推理相关的意思，求牛牛从自己的角度或者是从类比推理，再或者给解释一下OG，谢谢了！

kluivert

前提：只要开了SaveAll discount department store，那些 shopping districts就遭受1/4的店子破产
结论：如果Morganville想要保住商业区的健康，一定要抵制SaveAll discount department store

c.在healthy central shopping districts ，五年中的店子破产比例
c选项是和前提对比的
如果c中的比例为大致1/4，甚至高了，那说明根本不是SaveAll的问题，是压根做生意的自然规律
                             如果低了，那一定程度上支持了结论... SaveAll discount department store会导致stores破产，必须抵制

所以可以用来评估

og怎么解释的？可以发一下看看嘛

cycgundam

感觉题目没发完？

因 - 其他小城镇在这个折扣商店开业五年里，超过25%的购物中心区域的店都关门大吉了。
果 - 所以为了保证我们市中心购物区的繁荣，绝对不能在市郊外建那个折扣商店。

简单点说：隐含的意思就是说市郊开的折扣店，能把市中心的购物人气给抢了。理由就是折扣店本身就能抢人气。所以这个人气的流动，不会因为市郊和市中心的地理位置为改变，如果能改变，那题目的结论就有可能是鲁莽的。比如人气流动显然在郊区外围比较慢，那么也不需要担心这个折扣商店会抢人气。故而对比在市郊和市中心的差异对比上。

D是唯一一个给这个差异对比提供了一些数据的选项。如果开在市郊的折扣商店在雇人方面无法达成一个数值，那么明显它根本就开不成，自然也无法对市中心的人气构成威胁。

蟹黄味蚕豆

cycgundam 发表于 2018-9-1 09:51
感觉题目没发完？

因 - 其他小城镇在这个折扣商店开业五年里，超过25%的购物中心区域的店都关门大吉了。

题目发完了的  大神的解析 一句也没看懂 anyway 谢谢！

蟹黄味蚕豆

cycgundam 发表于 2018-9-1 09:51
感觉题目没发完？

因 - 其他小城镇在这个折扣商店开业五年里，超过25%的购物中心区域的店都关门大吉了。

OG说 有两个问题最值得知道
(1) did the opening of Saveall cause any of these bankruptcies?
(2) is a 25% percent bankruptcy rate over five years unhealthy?
您说的大致与OG相同 谢谢！

kluivert

cycgundam 发表于 2018-9-1 09:51
感觉题目没发完？

因 - 其他小城镇在这个折扣商店开业五年里，超过25%的购物中心区域的店都关门大吉了。

他的题当然没发全，缺了条件
Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping district healthy, it should prevent the opening of a huge SaveAll discount department store on the outskirts of Morganville. Records from other small towns show that whenever SaveAll has opened a store outside the central shopping district of a small town, within five years the town has experienced the bankruptcies of more than a quarter of the stores in the shopping district.

蟹黄味蚕豆

kluivert 发表于 2018-9-1 13:37
他的题当然没发全，缺了条件
Community activist: If Morganville wants to keep its central shopping d ...

还真的没发现！！！谢谢指正！