求问一道逻辑题目！感谢！The recently announced dissolution of the Freedom Party, a major nat

Sysysy6789

求助大家一道题！
The recently announced dissolution of the Freedom Party, a major national political party, will not benefit the one other major national political party, the Liberty Party. It will, however, help third parties, including the Workers Party, who will now take more votes away from the Liberty Party in the upcoming national presidential race than would have been taken by the Freedom Party, had it not been dissolved.

Which of the following, if true, would cast the most serious doubt on the claim made in the last sentence above?
A.Name recognition is a better predictor of a political party's success than how well its positions match with public opinion.  
B.Most voters had considered the Freedom Party and the Liberty Party to have very similar positions on most key issues.  
C.The Workers Party only runs political candidates in local elections, including those for city council members, assemblymen, and mayors.  
D.Polls indicate that most voters believe that candidates for third parties are more honest and trustworthy than are candidates for major national parties.  
E.The dissolution of a major political party inevitably causes many voters to change their longstanding voting habits and vote for parties they have never voted for in the past.  

题目来源是某在线练习网站。我可以理解正确答案为C了，但是我分析B的思路是：FP和LP的很多政见相同，因此FP解散导致很多选民会投政见相似的LP，就不会有那么多投WP，请问这样的思路哪里有问题吗？感谢！

alzn2765

典型的“二次推理”错误。

中国人最容易犯的错误，就是总是从对方说话的内容猜测对方说话的目的。比如：A: 你看看外面是不是阴天了？B：我带伞了。 A: 你帮我看看饮水机里还有水吗？ B：我刚才已经帮你把你的水杯灌满了。

发现问题了吗？B回答了A的问题了吗？回答了。B不仅回答了，还把A问问题的目的也一起回答了。B假设A问天气是为了提醒B带伞；B假设A问饮水机里有没有水是为了打水喝。可问题是这真是A问问题的目的吗？如果A问天气是为想知道要不要收衣服呢？A问饮水机有没有水是为了顺便在饮水机里加点儿药把同寝的B给毒死呢？

你自己人为的添加了一个assumption之后去解释选项，这是不可以的。FP和LP的很多政见相同，因此FP解散导致很多选民会投政见相似的LP，就不会有那么多投WP。其中“FP解散导致很多选民会投政见相似的LP”这是你自己加上去的assumption，题里没说，选项里也没说。你凭什么假设“FP解散导致很多选民一定会投政见相似的LP”？这些选民失望不投了可能吗？这些选民自己去重组FP，然后投给自己。可以吗？你是在自己加了一个assumption上去之后，得出结论“就不会有那么多投WP”的。可如果事实是第二或者第三种情况，还能得出“就不会有那么多投WP”的结论吗？显然不能。那么好，根据题干信息，你如何保证一定是第一种情况发生呢？你如果不能，就说明你的结论是不一定成立的。

凡是会问“如果。。。。。，那么。。。。。，就。。。。”的都是一样的错误。说明你对CR的解题要求理解不深刻。