manhattan CR 笔记

ixjlyuanlang800

不会加附件...笨的自己都嫌弃自己了,只能这样发了,祝各位杀G成功

                                                                                                      Paterns and Flaws
A. Unjustified Assumption
An argument with this sort of flaw requires an unspoken and unsupported premise. Thus, the conclusion can’t be validated unless the assumption can be proven.
1. Assumes Shared Beliefs
Don’t take anything for granted and don’t bring in outside ideas.
2. Draw Extreme Conclusion
The conclusion uses language so extreme that the premises cannot justified that conclusion.
3. Assumes Skill and Will
For people to do something, they have to be able to do it, and they have to want to. Both skill and will are necessary.
4. Use Vague or Altered Terms
Question any terms that is insufficiently precise.
5. Assumes Signs of a Thing= Thing Itself
Don’t confuse external signs and reality. Quite often, the signs can be misleading.

B. Causation Errors
6. Mixed Up Correlation and Causation
If two things occur together (correlation), you can’t automatically conclude that a particular causal model is at work.
Causation errors often have to do with changes or events that occur at the same time or in sequence. Don’t assumes that simultaneous events are necessarily connected.
These logical timing errors often take place in the context of business or politics. Leaders love to take credit for improved conditions, but the improvements might not be related to whatever harebrained initiatives the leaders put in place.
If X and Y seem to be correlated, then there are four possibilities.
    X causes Y.
    Y causes X.
    Z (some other phenomenon) causes both X and Y.
    It is an accident you don’t have all the data.
7. Assumes the Future = the past
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
8. Assumes the Best Means Success
“Just because a plan didn’t work doesn’t mean it wasn’t our best shot,” or “just because a protection fails doesn’t mean it wasn’t protecting.” Sometimes even the best things fail.

C. Comparison Errors
Comparison errors often represent a form of Unjustified Assumption, the assumption typically being that the two things are similar enough in the important ways to be compared.
9. Has Selection Bias
There are a few variations of selection bias.
    Unrepresentative Sample
    Survivor Bias
Ever-changing Pool
10. The Troubled Analogy
It’s your job to note the possible dissimilarities.

D. Math Errors
You will need to keep percents and real numbers straight.
11. Confuses the Quantities

E. Communication Errors
Either way, once you have more than one position, the door is open for communication errors.
12. Missing the Point
When two people argue with one another on the GMAT, one of them often misses the point.

shimenylzs

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