GWD 逻辑evaluation一题求解释～多谢

sicilia小山

Plantings of cotton bioengineered to produce its own insecticide against bollworms, a major cause of crop failure, sustained little bollworm damage until this year.This year the plantings are being seriously damaged by bollworms.Bollworms, however, are not necessarily developing resistance to the cotton’s insecticide.Bollworms breed on corn, and last year more corn than usual was planted throughout cotton-growing regions.So it is likely that the cotton is simply being overwhelmed by corn-bred bollworms.



In evaluating the argument, which of the following would be most useful to establish?

1. Whether corn could be bioengineered to produce the insecticide
   
   
2. Whether plantings of cotton that does not produce the insecticide are suffering unusually extensive damage from bollworms this year
   
   
3. Whether other crops that have been bioengineered to produce their own insecticide successfully resist the pests against which the insecticide was to protect them
   
   
4. Whether plantings of bioengineered cotton are frequently damaged by insect pests other than bollworms
   
   
5. Whether there are insecticides that can be used against bollworms that have developed resistance to the insecticide produced by the bioengineered cotton
   
   KEY:B
   我做的时候选的是A，我想问B，其他没有抗W的cotton遭受毁坏代表有可能是自身本来就不抗W，或玉米breed出来的；如果木有毁坏则代表玉米并没breed出来到可以产生extensive damage的W。
   
   那A 错在哪里呢？哎呀。。。好糊涂啊。。。
   请各位大侠不吝赐教！！！感激不尽～
   
   

jeffjarrett

大牛轻拍。
首先A是无关选项，必须错。你把A代入原文，无论答案是yes或no，都无法evaluate原文的结论。DCE同为无关选项。

原文的结论【是】it is likely that the cotton is simply being overwhelmed by corn-bred bollworms，而【不是】by bollworms that are developing resistance to the cotton's insecticide.

支持这个结论的【事实】B这货不大可能自带抗体，今年更多的棒子被种了，而B这货是长在棒子里的

然后你可以发现，仅仅根据这个事实我们并无法得出原文的结论，因为cotton的悲剧仍然可能是B这货天赋异禀基因变异产生抗体；也可能是一种更悲剧的情况，即B带了抗体，同时棒子种多了B也变多了。

这题的B选项如同“分歧终端机”一样，如果答案为yes，即基因改造的cotton和不改造的cotton都悲剧了，则说明原文结论成立；如果答案为no，即连非基因改造的cotton（不会自带产生杀虫剂）都没有受到B丧心病狂的攻击，那么B这货的overwhelming绝对不是因为棒子种多了，则说明原文结论不成立。

另外还有其他的的解题方法，例如找相关性神马的，原文结论是COTTON和B这货的一个关系。A选项说棒子能不能产生抗体，完全无关；B选项说没有抗体的COTTON和B这货的一个关系，可以留着；C选项说其他的corp能自己产生抗体保护他们，完全无关；D说COTTON被【其他东西】而不是B攻击，完全无关；E太残疾了，就不说了。