求助，纠结了很久的一道2012prep逻辑题~~~~

renyu199014

Prep2012-Pack1-CR-038VCR002878Medium

Surveys in Domorica indicate that only 10 percent of Domoricans in their twenties read a newspaper regularly, while more than half of all Domoricans over thirty read a newspaper regularly. Although Domoricans in their twenties constitute a large proportion of the population, newspaper publishers nonetheless predict that ten years from now, the percentage of Domoricans who regularly read a newspaper will probably be no lower than it is today.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest grounds for the newspaper publishers’ prediction?

A.The number of Domoricans in their twenties is less than the number of Domoricans over thirty.

B.The number of newspapers in Domorica has been gradually increasing over the past several decades.

C.The proportion of Domoricans in their twenties who regularly read a newspaper has always been low.
D.The surveys defined a regular reader of a newspaper as someone who reads a newspaper more than twice a week.

E.The proportion of Domoricans who regularly read a newspaper was higher 20 years ago than it is today.
不明白为什么选C呢

Alaska17

看了大家的讨论，可以理解如果选c则可以说明，Domo国今天不爱看书的年轻人（20～30岁）十年之后会变成相对爱看书的中年人（30岁+）。使我不明白的是原文的结论，although和nonetheless，意思是说Domo国的年轻人，这部分人人口大，不爱看书，这个现象/事实能够加强十年后Domo国人的读书率变低的结论。不懂为什么。
或者说，这题是问加强，但是原来的argument我就没看懂。没看出哪里make sense。

木皆文

kwkwman2 发表于 2018-5-26 15:54
简单一点说你想要argument 成立，首先有一个隐含条件
1. 20岁的人到了30岁读报纸的人一定要增加，否则的话p ...

豁然开朗，我也觉得这个题应该从时间的角度出发去理解

swwmms_jy

这道题的关键在于C选项的“has always been" 是让你往过去看（请注意现在完成时其实大部分是讲过去的），即过去不爱读报的年轻人现在也变成了爱读报的中年人，那么就有理由推断：现在不爱读报的年轻人将来也会变成爱读报的中年人，将来报纸的发行量亦无忧矣～

逆旅duckweed

吴大头1989 发表于 2012-8-21 17:20
我觉得这道题应该这么理解，C选项说这个20-30岁看报的比例一直很低，这说明这是20-30岁人群的固定现象，不 ...

同意！               

kwkwman2

简单一点说你想要argument 成立，首先有一个隐含条件
1. 20岁的人到了30岁读报纸的人一定要增加，否则的话percentge 不会增加的
C 难就在于真的超级隐晦的带出这个条件 - 说 The proportion of Domoricans in their twenties who regularly read a newspaper has always been low. - 言下之意，无论以前现在未来20岁读报纸的人的比例都是少的，那么现在这个30岁人中超过一半的人的比例读报纸也是从这个has always been low变化而来。

就是说读报纸的比例会随着年龄增加而增加，与隐含assumption 完美切合，正确答案没有错

daisylol

吴大头1989 发表于 2012-8-21 17:20
我觉得这道题应该这么理解，C选项说这个20-30岁看报的比例一直很低，这说明这是20-30岁人群的固定现象，不 ...

同意！               

呵呵哒么么哒

为什么我的理解和大家都不一样？我的理解是：
C告诉我们，20岁的人一直都不怎么看报纸。原文前提是，现在（语境发生的时间）30岁的人大部分看报纸。结合C与前提，说明现在(语境发生的时间）这些30岁的、经常看报纸的人在10年前（语境发生前10年）也是不怎么看报纸的，反过来推出，不管是在语境发生前10年，还是语境发生时，20岁的人变老到30岁的过程中会逐渐开始看报纸（结论1）。结论1结合Domoricans in their twenties constitute a large proportion of the population这句话，说明a large proportion of the population在10年后也会逐渐开始看报纸，从而10年后看报的人不会比现在少。
写的比较乱，欢迎讨论。

SherylCheung

想象下，有天你看到一个消息，说现在年轻人都不怎么看报纸了，你的第一反应是？
“年轻人不看报纸了，是不是以后看报纸的人越来越少？”

C告诉你：不，不是越来越少，而是“本来就很少”，所以没有影响(no lower than)。

非严谨推理，仅帮助理解。不过说实话，个人认为大部分CR题目，用commen sense就可解，且简单高效。
（题干信息干扰性较强，参考tips是：语法上，while, although所引导的内容非关键信息）

Lunafang

Right now, a low percent of people in their 20s read papers but half the people above 30 read papers. As the population ages over the next ten years, wouldn't some of the over 30 people die? We lose readers that way. Unless the people who are currently in their 20s start reading to pick up the slack, the overall percentage of the population who read is going to decrease.

Now, how can we guarantee that we can maintain the same reader percentage? IF those people currently in their 20s start reading ten years from now, when they are in their 30s. Envision a timeline of people, from babies to very old people. Push all those people ten years to the left. Some older readers will die and will have to be replaced. As long as the 20s people START reading in 10 years, and become typical of the current over 30 people in regards to reading, we won't lower our readership percentage.

C) helps support this idea. People in their 20s historically don't read, but once they reach 30+ they start reading. If this has happened for a long time it shows that our current readers in their 30s are reading after NOT reading in their 20s, and it is reasonable to assume that the current 20s population will undergo this same conversion.