请教GMAT逻辑大全 Test1-11

adasuying2004

Questions 10-11 are based on the following.
Partly because of bad weather, but also partly because some major pepper growers have switched to high-priced cocoa, world production of pepper has been running well below worldwide sales for three years. Pepper is consequently in relatively short supply. The price of pepper has soared in response: it now equals that of cocoa.
大全-1-11.    Some observers have concluded that the rise in the price of pepper means that the switch by some growers from pepper to cocoa left those growers no better off than if none of them had switched; this conclusion, however, is unwarranted because it can be inferred to be likely that
(A) those growers could not have foreseen how high the price of pepper would go
(B) the initial cost involved in switching from pepper to cocoa is substantial
(C) supplies of pepper would not be as low as they are if those growers had not switched crops
(D) cocoa crops are as susceptible to being reduced by bad weather as are pepper crops
(E) as more growers turn to growing cocoa, cocoa supplies will increase and the price of cocoa will fall precipitously

这道题答案是C，可是我觉得是A。望牛人解答：）

Ronniemu

我是这样理解的
提干结论是价格上升导致switch较不switch相比无好处
C中说明不switch的话supply会增加，那么价格keep low,所以该情况是差的，即不switch→worse  
驳斥了提干结论

请NN指教

hzd515976083

题干大意：
不利天气，种植者数量减少→pepper产量下降→供不应求→价格上升
Some observers：
价格上升→转向种植cocoa的种植者有潜在损失→与所有的转换作物品种的种植者都不转换的情况相比，现在的这种转换没有带来任何好处
Some observers的推理明显错误就是他们的推理会导致依赖的前提不存在，即“价格上升”的前提是“不利天气，种植者数量减少”，如果都不转换作物品种，“价格上升”这个结论就不确定，进而推理就会自相矛盾。
A的错误就是没有指出Some observers的逻辑错误。其实，不管你有没有预料到，你都已经转换作物品种了，那么根据Some observers的逻辑，因为价格上升，你就有潜在损失。