[揽瓜阁逻辑小分队] day104

Ysandre

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Day 104
1.        鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选 州长， 而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中 赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。Flaw
2.        农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一 个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。
3.        犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A.        Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B.        How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C.        The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D.        The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E.        How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.

小张的诗

1.        鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选 州长， 而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中 赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。FlawP：一个州长提名 A 竞选 州长， 而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中 赢了。
C：这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。
flaw：不能只考虑提名这一个因素，上一个可能是偶然
2.        农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一 个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。
P：柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一 个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘
C：农民纷纷反对
在wetland上种植，减少的产量多余夜晚掉落的
3.        犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
P：M犯罪率多余P犯罪率
C：M地方的人比P的地方更容易犯罪
Flaw：
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A.        Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B.        How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C.        The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D.        The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E.        How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.

花花嘛嘛

Day 104
1.        鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选 州长， 而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中 赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。Flaw
P：前任州长提名的人赢得大选
C：这次州长提名的人赢得可能性大。
Flaw: 忽视了被提名的人的影响性和关键性
过分夸大州长提名的决定性

2.        农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一 个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。
解释原因：开发果园周围的wetland中柑橘，柑橘种得多掉得也多，损失更大

3.        犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A.        Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B.        How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C.        The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D.        The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E.        How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.

花花嘛嘛

Mark一下！               

佛系A子在線讀書

1.某州長提名的人過去有選上，所以他這次提名的人大概也會選上
>>過去不可預測未來

2.柑橘晚上會掉所以政府想要增產，被農民反對
>>土壤營養有限
>>wetland對果園有負面影響

3.D

luzitao630

一个州长提名 A 竞选州长, 而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中赢了. 所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。
问削弱 (类比推理)?
P: 因为前任州长提名了然后大选中赢了. C: 所以这次提名A, A也可以竞选上州长
A和前任州长有没有什么不同点, 比如亲和力是否不一样, 口才有没有前任的好, 是否对百姓更差等等 (只要提到和竞选有关的不同点其实就没什么问题了, 而且对A不利)
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
P: M地区的犯罪率的增长率相较于4年前上涨了60%; 同时, P地区相应的增长率才10%
C: 这表明, M地的人更容易成为犯罪事件的受害者
模式: 条件论证
漏洞: 没有提到两地基数 (4年前犯罪率是什么个情况) 是什么, 自然也就不能知道实际情况
举例: A地区的犯罪率是16%, 但是4年前是10%; B地区的犯罪率是99%, 但是去年是90%
所以仅仅通过增长率并不能说明哪个地区的人更容易成为受害者
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A. Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B. How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C. The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D. The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago-BINGO, 没有提到基数讲的是, ABC有关但是不优
E. How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.-无关
农民的橘子产量一到晚上就下降, 政府打算利用旁边的wetland湿地去开发新果园, 但是遭到了农民的反对, 为什么 (手段目的)?
手段: 开采附近的wetland
目的: 改善晚上产量下降的现状
问削弱
方向: 湿地对橘子产量的重要性-可能开采了情况更糟糕

luzitao630

NB

佛系A子在線讀書

看一下！               

断了的弦

Day 104
1.        鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选 州长， 而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中 赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。Flaw
这是类比关系，可能有他因削弱，例如提名州长人有不良声誉

2.        农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一 个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。
wetland 更易减产

3.        犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A.        Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B.        How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C.        The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D.        The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E.        How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.
d

断了的弦

kkk