大全一道CR求指点

半夏冬忍

Hotcooil burners, designed to be used in asphalt plants, are so efficient that Hotcowill sell one to the Clifton Asphalt plant for no payment other than the costsavings between the total amount the asphalt plant actually paid for oil usingits former burner during the last two years and the total amount it will payfor oil using the Hotco burner during the next two years. On installation, theplant will make an estimated payment, which will be adjusted after two years toequal the actual cost savings.

Which of the following, if it occurred, would constitute a disadvantage forHotco of the plan described above?

• AAnother manufacturer's introduction to     the market of a similarly efficient burner
  
• BThe Clifton Asphalt plant's need for     more than one new burner
  
• CVery poor efficiency in the Clifton     Asphalt plant's old burner
  
• DA decrease in the demand for     asphalt
  
• EA steady increase in the price of oil     beginning soon after the new burner is installed
  

正确答案: E

不明白E是怎么削弱的 错选D

半夏冬忍

lisiberry 发表于 2017-3-23 20:22
不知道LZ对题意有多少了解。估计没读懂这个能源公司的盈利模式是，让客户支付与过去2年支付的能源价格。而 ...

嗯嗯原文的意思确实没完全get对 谢谢啦

半夏冬忍

jade4059 发表于 2017-3-23 17:00
假设油价不变 为x，未来两年用油量为n, 用旧的burner前两年的花销是c，hotco可以赚c-nx
假设油价在之后涨为 ...

晓得啦谢谢！

lisiberry

不知道LZ对题意有多少了解。估计没读懂这个能源公司的盈利模式是，让客户支付与过去2年支付的能源价格。而因为这个能源公司的设备省电，因此能源公司可以以赚取差价的形式盈利。

因此，如果今后2年油价上涨得特别快，那么能源公司就赚不到利润了。所以答案是E.
D说将来工厂制水泥量会减少，也就是说用能源量会减少。对已经收了固定费用的工厂来说是会盈利的。所以不选。

jade4059

假设油价不变 为x，未来两年用油量为n, 用旧的burner前两年的花销是c，hotco可以赚c-nx
假设油价在之后涨为x1， 现在hotco可以赚c-nx1, which is less than c-nx

d选项迷惑性很高，但逻辑上有个gap, 你得证明demand减少会影响asphalt plant用油量。而且就算asphalt plant用油量减少，c-nx只会更高（c不变），反而是增强。