661. In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade Agency's records were reviewed in 1994 in light of information then newly available about neighboring Goro. The review revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency's projection of what Goro's gross national product (GNP), would be five years later was a serious underestimate. The review also revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previous year----a Goro state secret----very accurately.
A. Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly between 1963 and 1994.
B.Prior to 1995, Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections.
C. The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time.
D.Even before the new information came to light, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-year projections it had made were inaccurate.
E. The agency's five-year projections of Goro's GNP had no impact on economic planning in Marut.
D是里面最靠谱的答案，但是表述并不准确。对于1968年如果actual是X， 那么1969年对前一年也就是1968的预测是比较准确的比如X*1.001，但是在1963年对五年后也就是1968年的预测是underestimation假如是0.7*x.
那么对于同一年这个机构其实有两个预测结果X*1.001, 0.7*x，但是由于不知道actual value to benchmark，所以你很难判断这两个value是偏离的，有可能X*1.001其实一直是系统性的overestimate，也有可能0.7*x这么多年一直系统的低估。
every year since 1963, the agency's projected what the GNP would be 5 years later. i.e. projections were made for the years 1968, 1969, 1970, ... etc.-------- this projection was a serious underestimate.
Every year since 1963, they estimated the GNP of the previous year. So, estimates were made for 1962, 1963, 1964, ..., 1968, 1969, 1970,... etc.--------this estimate is very accurate那么从这两部分推理，第一个1968年的数据和第二个1968年的数据不一样，最早在1968年就可以发现
D：假设1963估计1968，1969回顾1968。因为1969回顾是准确的，1963预测是严重低估，所以很明显在不知道真正1968年数据是多少之前（before the new information came to light），因为研究者已经对1968年估计了两个不同的数字（分别是1969和1963估计的数字）。所以他们肯定知道这两个不同的数字中至少有一个是不准确的
京公网安备11010202008513号 京ICP证101109号 京ICP备12012021号
发表于 2017-1-13 19:11:28
收藏
收藏
