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The Swedish model: Admire the best, forget the rest
FOR much of Europe, the past decade has been depressing. Slow growth, high
unemployment and the burdens of rising public debt and falling competitiveness have
renewed doubts about the sustainability of the European “social model”, which is
also starting to creak under the weight of an ageing population. The youthful
dynamism of America, and now of China and India, seems to be leaving the decrepit
old continent in the shade. Yet there has always been one bright spot amid the gloom:
Scandinavia.
In recent years defenders of the European social model—capitalism tempered by a
generous and interventionist welfare state—have taken to praising Scandinavia to the
skies. The Nordic region, to go a bit wider, has the world's highest taxes and most
generous welfare benefits. And yet Sweden, Finland and Denmark (Norway's oil sets it
apart) have delivered strong growth and low unemployment, and rank among the
world's most competitive economies. Nordic companies are strong in technology and
research and development. Their health-care and educational systems are much
admired. And, unlike other European countries, most Nordic states run healthy budget
and current-account surpluses.
Sweden, whose 9m people make it by some way the biggest Nordic country, is a
particular favourite. A year ago the Guardian, a British newspaper, said it was the most
successful society the world had ever known. As if to bear this out, the Swedish
economy grew at a sizzling annual rate of 5.6% in the second quarter of 2006, enough
to trigger a spate of interest-rate rises by the central bank. Sweden's big companies,
such as Ericsson, SKF, Telia and Volvo, are breaking export records.
A visit to the capital, Stockholm, confirms that life for most Swedes is pretty good. Yet
there is disgruntlement in the air, and it is causing nervousness among the Social
Democrats, who have ruled Sweden alone or with other parties for 65 of the past 74
years, and must on September 17th again face the voters in a general election.
Sweden's Social Democrats are always difficult to defeat: they are well entrenched, well
financed and their leader, Goran Persson, who has been prime minister for a decade, is
tried and tested. But three years ago Mr Persson lost a referendum on joining the euro
and, though the polls show a narrowing gap, most now favour the centre-right
opposition, a four-party alliance under Fredrik Reinfeldt, leader of the Moderate Party.
Given Sweden's economic performance, this may seem like rank ingratitude. Many say
that it reflects merely the passage of time. Jan Eliasson, Sweden's impressive foreign
minister, notes that “We have been in power a long time. Democratic societies are
affected by a desire for change.” But critics of the government point to other factors.
One is a string of scandals, including several cases of nepotism, that have made the
Social Democrats seem a party that has grown arrogant and too accustomed to the
perks of government. Another is incompetence, notably the government's slow
response to the Asian tsunami of December 2004, in which 543 Swedes died.
But the biggest beef is, perhaps surprisingly, the economy. The opposition maintains
that Sweden's economic record is nothing like as good as its fans believe. If so, that
has implications for other Nordic economies—and raises doubts about whether other
European countries are wise to look northwards for a model.
In truth, the Swedish economy's best years are long gone. Between 1870 and 1950,
average growth in Swedish GDP and productivity was, by some measures, the fastest
in the world. In 1970 Sweden was the fourth-richest member of the OECD club of
industrial countries. But for most of the past 50 years the story has been one of
relative decline, including a deep recession in the early 1990s (see chart 1). By 1998
Sweden had fallen to 16th in the OECD rankings. It has since climbed back a bit, but
the relatively strong growth of the past decade should be seen mainly as a rebound
from the 1990s trough.
For all that, even the opposition accepts that Sweden has some enviable economic
advantages. Anders Borg, Mr Reinfeldt's chief economic adviser, praises the country's
well-managed, export-driven, high-tech companies and its well-educated workforce.
Female participation in the workforce is higher than in most other countries; English is
widely spoken; and Swedes are thoroughly computer-literate. Sweden is one of the few
rich European countries for which globalisation has been a benefit, not a threat. Most
other European governments would be pleased if they could only emulate Sweden's
success.
Gorgeous, if assembled bit by bit
Where will all this leave the much-trumpeted Swedish model? Most Swedes are weary
of listening to foreign claims about the perfection of their society. Mr Lindbeck
suggests that, where it does have economic strengths, they are of an essentially
Anglo-American, market variety. Johnny Munkhammar, who runs a pro-market thinktank, Timbro, argues similarly that history shows Sweden's economy to have flourished
when it has been more liberal and low-tax—and to have gone off the rails when higher
taxes and more regulation have been imposed.
The truth is that there is never a single economic model for other countries, even the
Nordic states, to follow. Neither membership of the EU nor adoption of the euro seems
necessary: Sweden is in the EU but not the euro, Finland is in both, Norway is in neither.
Different countries have different strengths. Mr Bildt puts forward his own tongue-incheek recipe for the perfect “Nordic model”, stretching the geography: Finland's
education, Estonia's progressive tax policy, Denmark's labour market, Iceland's
entrepreneurship, Sweden's management of big companies and Norway's oil. The right
conclusion, in other words, is that it is wisest not to look for a single-country model at
all, but just to take best practice wherever you find it.

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