关于两个作文题的思路。谢谢了！！

shake7570

小弟我31号二战，今天看作文钩钩，这两道题的思路我想的东西挺多，但是感觉特别散。所以想听听NN的对这两个题目的思路。谢谢了！！！

The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Aurora, a company that sells organic milk (milk produced without the use of chemical additives):  

“Sales of organic food products in this country have tripled over the past five years. If Aurora is to profit from this continuing trend, we must diversify and start selling products such as organic orange juice and organic eggs in addition to our regular product line. With the recent increase of articles in health magazines questioning the safety of milk and other food products, customers are even more likely to buy our line of organic products. And to help ensure our successful expansion, we should hire the founder of a chain of health-food stores to serve as our vice president of marketing.”  

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

The following appeared in a research paper written for an introductory economics course:  

“For the past century, an increase in the number of residential building permits issued per month in a particular region has been a reliable indicator of coming improvements to that region’s economy.  If the monthly number of residential building permits issued rises consistently for a few months, the local unemployment rate almost always falls and economic production increases.  This well-established connection reveals an effective method by which a regional government can end a local economic downturn: relax regulations governing all construction so that manymore building permits can be issued.”  

Discuss how well reasoned . . .etc.

当当的驿站

1 这是我在作文的资料里找到的 1The success of the profit gain in the sales of organic food products can not guarantee the same profit increase in the other organic products.
2The consumers can be affected by the magazines, but to what degree is not provided by the author.
3There is no causal relationship between the employment of the founder of a chain of health-food stores and the  successful expansion.

boboinsz

不是NN能说说思路不？
1.有机食品Sales增加不等于有机食品的profit margin就比普通食品的profit margin高。而公司转型要生产有机食品的cost会不会太高？有机橙汁，鸡蛋（both are perishable products）是有机食品里面最profitable的吗？有机食品的市场饱和度和竞争是怎样？消费者倾向有机食品不等于就会买Aurora牌子的有机食品。Chain-store founder是否就是好的marketing leader？总之，太多的unwarranted assumption。

2. correlation 不等于causation。很可能number of residential building permits issued rise是果而不是因。只有当人们有钱了，才有可能去买房不是？所以买房子的人数和失业率是经济好坏的指标，而不是原因。

shake7570

谢谢了！！！