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沙发
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发表于 2013-6-27 22:17:49
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77. The following recommendation appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
"Two years ago, the nearby town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. Therefore, the best way to improve Hopewell's economy—and generate additional tax revenues—is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
提纲：
假设1：作者假设Ocean View的各种繁荣现象，是因为golf course and resort hotel造成的。然而可能是其它原因造成了繁荣。比如政府改善自然和社会环境，吸引了游客，游客多了，business就多了。政府最近可能提高了税收，所以税收收入提高了。
假设2：即使Ocean View的繁荣，就是因为golf course and resort hotel，作者的第二个假设也是不对的，作者假设Ocean View的措施，到了Hopewell也奏效。但是Ocean View不一定是旅游城市，或者当地政府没足够资金支持修建golf course and resort hotel，那么这个措施在Hopewell就不奏效。
假设3：即使假设1和2都成立，那么作者的最后假设也不一定对，作者假设golf course and resort hotel是最好的措施。但是最好的措施取决于当地的条件。
In this argument, the author suggests that Hopewell should imitate the measure of the nearby town of Ocean View in order to improve Hopewell’s economy. To supports his argument, the author provides some evidence and these evidence make this argument plausible at first glance. However, a close examination reveals that this argument contains several unsubstantiated assumptions.
First of all, this argument essentially bases on an assumption that the prosperity of Ocean View resulted from the action of built golf course and resort hotel. This assumption is questionable since there may several others measure of Ocean View result in the prosperity. For example, Ocean View had make much efforts on ameliorating the natural and social environment. As a result, the number of tourism increased and new business had open to entertain the increasing tourism. Also, Ocean View have hiked the tax in recent years, so the tax revenue increased. Thus, it is obvious many other actions could contribute to the prosperity of Ocean View rather than the action of built golf course and resort hotel. If this assumption of the author is proved as false, his suggestion will be rendered as groundless since this measure do not work in Ocean View.
Even we acknowledged that the new golf course and resort hotel are the primary reasons of the prosperity of Ocean View, the author’s another assumption is also not cogent that the measure work in Ocean View will also be effective in Hopewell. We do not know the condition of Hopewell, the policy of Ocean View is applicable for the town will rely on traveling. However, if Hopewell is not a town which major industry is not traveling, this measure will not help improve the tax revenue. Also, build new golf course and resort hotel may need much money and it is probable that the government of Hopewell do not own enough money to back this plan. So although this measure play well in Ocean View, it may not work well in Hopewell and the recommendation of the author will be undermined seriously.
Finally, granted that the two assumptions of the author discussed above are true, the premise that the action of built golf course and resort hotel is the best way to improve economy of Hopewell is unsubstantiated. The best way to develop economy depends on the condition of given area. For example, Hopewell maybe a town which proliferate fruits such as apple or oranges and the best way will be develop the transport which could export more fruits to other areas. Thus, if Hopewell is a town which own beautiful scene and could attract many travelers before, which means Hopewell is a town for traveling, build golf course and resort hotel could be the best way to develop economy since it supplement the entertainment facilities of Hopewell which could attract more tourisms. However, if Hopewell is not a town which rely much on traveling, the action of built golf course and resort hotel will not be effective.
To summarize, the suggestion of the author is highly questionable since several assumption on which this argument bases are unsubstantiated.
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发表于 2013-6-27 22:15:33
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觉得挺好的啊，对分数有点吃惊！！
